Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump say "Card" during Zelensky events on August 18?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb58c485916ecd5eebdb839e7d004d5de49797497371384a8aba5a19ab04d44a4

Rebuilt 36 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 18, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,282 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	25c	1,724$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.84	255	28.2%72 W · 183 L	-17.5wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-32%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f33…0479backed Yes	22c	1,515$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.42	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	24c	1,326$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.87	141	21.3%30 W · 111 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No	74c	1,010$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.46	154	51.3%79 W · 75 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No	80c	500$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.95	44	50%22 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No	76c	500$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+5.0wins	+0.20per pick	44cpaid	+54.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	22c	420.67$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.77	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No	79c	375$297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.03	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes	25c	374.22$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.01	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	5c	314.51$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes	21c	300$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	75c	300$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.3	66	65.2%43 W · 23 L	+8.4wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No	78c	264.21$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.13	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No	79c	262$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.82	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No	71c	250$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes	26c	249.39$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.45	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No	74c	236.59$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.05	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	78c	222.57$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.53	417	36.2%151 W · 266 L	-25.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	27c	219.99$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.4	214	26.2%56 W · 158 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75c0…1484backed Yes	23c	217.39$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	27cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bd3…985bbacked Yes	25c	202.4$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No	78c	200$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-6.1wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes	23c	192.55$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.99	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes	25c	178.32$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.98	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-3.0wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	22c	158.32$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.03	115	42.6%49 W · 66 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes	23c	150.21$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.65	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No	79c	134.79$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.31	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes	29c	130$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.13	99	32.3%32 W · 67 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ab…4481backed Yes	24c	123.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes	21c	119.63$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.78	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	394	29.4%116 W · 278 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Yes	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	93	26.9%25 W · 68 L	-7.7wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked No	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91b9…dcd8backed No	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a79…8e05backed No	72c	100$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	76c	100$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc324…4cd6backed No	71c	100$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…061fbacked Yes	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.97	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fce…d4a6backed Yes	22c	89.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	+78.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	78	44.9%35 W · 43 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4083…363fbacked Yes	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No	73c	57.78$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30d…5ec4backed Yes	22c	54.55$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No	76c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	117	41%48 W · 69 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xfd47…000fbacked Yes	28c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…c2b2backed No	78c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.6wins	+0.24per pick	49cpaid	+44.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x042d…4d50backed Yes	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No	77c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	+4.8wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6140…08b0backed Yes	23c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21c6…f536backed Yes	23c	43.02$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	38cpaid	+54.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5dc9…0101backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1e…b315backed No	77c	40$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e1…b3c6backed No	77c	32.47$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.47	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed No	68c	31.25$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c2…f46dbacked Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b6…f594backed No	78c	26.02$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.62	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	262	38.5%101 W · 161 L	+18.2wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc481…471fbacked No	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Card" during Zelensky events on August 18?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event