TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc324…4cd6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
87
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2075%15 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+28.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+104.5%+$81.31
50% India tariff in effect by August 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT+316.7%+$380
Trump approval >45% on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+37%+$13.5
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.68
Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$37.69
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$11
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$10
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$20.5
Will DOGE audit the Federal Reserve before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+25.3%+$46.3
Will DOGE audit Fort Knox before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+166.7%+$25
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,760Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+26.1%+$1,239.98
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$111
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$96
Will Stephen Baldwin attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+26.6%+$45.99
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$796Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+25.6%+$203.99
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+31%+$71
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+49.3%+$280.6
Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+108.3%+$23.84
Will the election be called on Nov 5? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$89.63
All 20 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST1258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jerry Heil win Vidbir 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$30.99
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$23
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$53.17
Will Trump meet with Putin by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$80
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$39
Will Trump say "Card" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$29
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+166.7%+$62.5
Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.22
Will Trump say "Pakistan" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$128.83
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for 10 seconds or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$78
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+41.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will no CEO be announced in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+175.3%+$289.95
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+111.8%+$316.49
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+78.8%+$220.4
Will Saif Ali Khan be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+426.3%+$810
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$99.53
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$3,394Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$3,394.01
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$56
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$37
Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$44.2
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$467Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$467.32
All 11 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 20, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-44.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-69.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+203%+$203.01
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.76
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$102.95
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$142.87
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Yoon arrested before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$95
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.