Us Politics · resolved market
Will DOGE audit the Federal Reserve before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x357fd93c21135d254125684be8dc1fc2a9eee2c7d2ca3e4a0274551464a35d8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 1,440$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 848.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…97dabacked No | 79c | 442.49$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 21c | 388.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 366.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 77c | 350.65$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked No | 77c | 337.66$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 19c | 333$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…4cd6backed No | 80c | 229.14$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd1…acadbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 23c | 198.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x246b…3037backed Yes | 41c | 147.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 79c | 91.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…3f3dbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 53c | 77.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…924dbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…8749backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked No | 80c | 48.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 62c | 43.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 79c | 36.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f48…c790backed No | 65c | 27.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…46c8backed Yes | 43c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd9…c16ebacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.