TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,302,369
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,133,775

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,302,369 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 272 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb68a…c568backed Yes16c143,791$22,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,967.3322216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes20c105,368$21,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,470.2687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes12c78,609$9,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,056.2825824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf009…eb5fbacked Yes17c61,462$10,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,383.991136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1462…156ebacked Yes5c49,742$2,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,280.78130%0 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f23…bfe3backed Yes9c49,460$4,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,417.91425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-38.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes22c35,080$7,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,880.0958126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes17c32,911$5,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7074736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5f8…8d75backed Yes11c30,883$3,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,319.731216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28ae…15e0backed Yes7c30,564$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf17a…8abebacked No79c30,500$24,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,4053100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked No58c30,436$17,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,729.091963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Yes36c30,041$10,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,756.094242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes2c27,240$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.691198.4%10 W · 109 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+90.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes8c25,250$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes13c23,157$2,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,944.6818425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f1…2417backed Yes5c21,349$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.511513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00012025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf7…da78backed No75c19,905$14,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,931.675761.4%35 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes9c18,166$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.1314337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…7badbacked Yes19c15,308$2,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,906.23633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Yes19c15,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9001631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-51.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes20c13,633$2,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,703.5363835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed No69c12,485$8,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,832.451573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed No79c11,576$9,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,411.421866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c10,275$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.151360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94da…2bf1backed No70c9,749$6,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,946.693351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x463b…7a7fbacked Yes7c8,278$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes12c8,202$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.59425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fbb…22f0backed No63c8,196$5,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,032.52771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bdd…13f3backed No61c6,553$3,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+222.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65fe…e38fbacked Yes12c6,367$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd5…cf04backed Yes10c6,333$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.891233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c6,241$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.0564812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9615…38acbacked Yes50c5,954$2,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,965.361428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bdb…14d8backed Yes18c5,597$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37a9…73e8backed No56c5,357$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.081266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed No74c5,149$3,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.066468.8%44 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes5c5,128$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.97137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-75.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e0…7395backed No73c5,086$3,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.25757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9613…7528backed Yes6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No73c5,000$3,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,37010545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes25c4,935$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.6911554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9e1e…a7afbacked Yes34c4,469$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.954143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes13c4,361$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.212910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes11c4,000$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4481050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes14c3,972$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.428619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa601…d54ebacked Yes35c3,900$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3763732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes9c3,790$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.21375.4%2 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No68c3,740$2,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.995639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked No54c3,704$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.81643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+68.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf626…8a12backed Yes42c3,589$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50050%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x76bc…205bbacked No77c3,385$2,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.743351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,344$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.771,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d3…06eebacked Yes3c3,245$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.32532%8 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked No77c3,215$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.255240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes12c3,180$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.0512824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick30cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8643…cb9bbacked No59c2,695$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes15c2,592$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.575514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes19c2,500$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48028021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x190c…8cf4backed Yes8c2,417$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd68e…4afdbacked Yes25c2,378$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes19c2,322$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.888713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes20c2,157$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.8919439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d92…b63dbacked Yes9c2,009$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1851513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed No80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes30c1,865$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.756527.7%18 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No50c1,850$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.53455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes42c1,850$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7773023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a90…93bfbacked No58c1,700$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7151442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4093…823cbacked Yes31c1,678$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.31926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28d8…18d9backed Yes48c1,667$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.16850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes6c1,498$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.594517.8%8 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0140…9510backed Yes35c1,477$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.92850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed No80c1,460$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.6650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes28c1,436$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.2411316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked No80c1,318$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.675747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…d849backed Yes13c1,305$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-38.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x052c…5a0ebacked Yes39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…09b1backed Yes13c1,271$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes20c1,210$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.327540%30 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x512c…d419backed Yes30c1,152$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.662828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a2b…b404backed Yes5c1,132$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60427.1%3 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes25c1,100$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.52759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked No69c1,100$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3412334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15a9…6b43backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002339.1%9 W · 14 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick14cpaid+155.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34015023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes12c999.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204136.6%15 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes7c999.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a0…9684backed No78c943.36$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.213844.7%17 W · 21 L-7.7wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-35%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x02a0…beeebacked No69c936.32$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.26366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes22c915.89$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.555032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes40c910$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.9425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe896…edd1backed Yes33c860$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.63250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No62c851$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.141994.7%18 W · 1 L+5.6wins+0.30per pick65cpaid+44.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x431d…b7a6backed No60c850$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ca…feacbacked Yes15c799.97$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes9c799.76$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.381333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked No64c788.32$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.85545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.