Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dabc33381b0f076bb74db46ea11cbb6491863e9f8ebb3143d3a6ceecef677fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $669,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $820,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $669,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 4c | 123,725$5,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,078.16 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 0c | 50,121$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1462…156ebacked Yes | 0c | 30,373$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 2c | 13,835$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.28 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23d…b77abacked Yes | 6c | 10,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 7,502$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,530$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.58 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,958$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 1c | 4,291$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 7c | 4,000$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,875$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.67 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 2c | 2,226$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…5696backed Yes | 7c | 2,206$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…438dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,838$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 6c | 1,670$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c3…8cd8backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 999.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105e…b066backed Yes | 2c | 999.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x837b…e8bebacked Yes | 2c | 847.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 794.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…b36abacked Yes | 2c | 769.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -86%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…ece5backed Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556d…dd1fbacked Yes | 3c | 566$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a52…d338backed Yes | 3c | 558$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 5c | 540.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…ff2abacked Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…6b18backed Yes | 3c | 480$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…4620backed Yes | 4c | 480$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…e008backed Yes | 4c | 478$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 6c | 458.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe50…5b7abacked Yes | 3c | 442$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 4c | 402.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5706…c38abacked Yes | 3c | 379$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 8c | 209$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $111K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $117K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.