TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $110K in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,407,006
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,428,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,407,006 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56d8…a862backed No78c516,601$403,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403,492.79862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed2…e8c6backed No1c219,510$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes26c217,986$56,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,140.6558126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes32c206,157$66,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139,721.3322216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes40c135,139$54,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,656.5837745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f23…bfe3backed Yes41c108,081$44,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,071.43425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-38.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes74c65,555$48,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,349.314047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes34c60,916$20,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,385.8118425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf7…da78backed Yes28c57,504$16,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,235.25761.4%35 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes44c49,143$21,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,577.463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes28c47,654$13,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,110.484736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes44c36,251$15,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,428.7387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed No78c31,089$24,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,318.461866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes23c28,912$6,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,270.3112824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes34c25,408$8,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,646.314337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No56c23,331$13,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,127.1710545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes44c18,878$8,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,522.942766.7%18 W · 9 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+41.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1eb3…92e2backed No72c18,162$13,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,132.841478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+59.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes26c17,476$4,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,857.5825824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bae…3a9bbacked No67c16,478$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes35c15,670$5,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,193.4311554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes38c15,492$5,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,557.4516761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x277f…ed32backed Yes60c12,000$7,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,757.151553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes61c11,139$6,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,382.5255032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes21c11,049$2,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,709.4711316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ae…15e0backed Yes18c10,964$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,963.741822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x658d…b95dbacked Yes50c9,302$4,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,626.761656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes57c7,500$4,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,187.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2154…715cbacked No70c7,500$5,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2252142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No28c7,066$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.693831.6%12 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes21c5,950$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,679.7715023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked No64c5,924$3,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,764.219913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca21…efa0backed Yes69c5,768$4,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.031060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked No22c5,621$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.61643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+68.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes33c5,500$1,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7104528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7967…f4a0backed No24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes58c5,000$2,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1136950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf009…eb5fbacked Yes44c4,466$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,516.671136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Yes58c4,374$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.096468.8%44 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No76c4,301$3,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,275.921546.7%7 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick69cpaid-34.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7694…2b66backed Yes54c4,180$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,930.591936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked No24c4,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.925240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No16c3,800$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6195639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fbb…22f0backed Yes69c3,796$2,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.76771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9615…38acbacked Yes54c3,790$2,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.621428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes30c3,613$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5257652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c3,524$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,628.0364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No24c3,374$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82512736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8f…0644backed Yes24c3,250$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,458.324050%20 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes10c3,175$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,857.58619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf68…3fdebacked No51c3,074$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.811921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick42cpaid-45.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c4a…15c7backed Yes45c3,022$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked Yes24c3,003$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,268.4115754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No79c3,000$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,37013863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked No61c2,938$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,801.462334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e1e…a7afbacked Yes20c2,911$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,325.844143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes11c2,872$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,556.252910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1032…8f91backed Yes19c2,789$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.623847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8643…cb9bbacked No35c2,601$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.37633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb36…09f3backed Yes45c2,203$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.4742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes27c2,157$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.155514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd68e…4afdbacked Yes12c2,094$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.832744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa8…5d61backed No40c2,023$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No66c2,000$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.59824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3da…3d6abacked No41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8202516%4 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-72.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa601…d54ebacked No32c2,000$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.53732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes34c1,916$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.157540%30 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca2…134fbacked No29c1,762$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.694146.3%19 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ea…60c2backed Yes25c1,641$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.394153.7%22 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed Yes69c1,595$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.211353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ea4…4bf3backed No50c1,595$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.892821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd321…a77fbacked No58c1,500$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.924763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No54c1,491$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8008038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed No68c1,402$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.785955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4093…823cbacked No34c1,386$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.11926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8378…8b50backed Yes72c1,291$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.48633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6343…bf0abacked Yes75c1,283$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.69771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x431d…b7a6backed No33c1,230$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.9742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cd0…a0a1backed Yes43c1,200$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6844763.8%30 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0856…dd1abacked Yes75c1,191$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.354555.6%25 W · 20 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed No13c1,127$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.955822.4%13 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9682…ff2abacked No53c1,100$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.253036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x512c…d419backed Yes32c1,095$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.952828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x519a…2ec7backed Yes23c1,010$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.7825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick30cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked No23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf984…0a62backed No30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-46.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4107767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x17d3…9a72backed No25c996$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2491250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked No50c990.85$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Yes74c933.92$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.92944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked No57c911.54$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.075545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf8ca…0138backed No41c900$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.552060%12 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+34.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes49c899.99$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.994136.6%15 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked No33c816.23$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.185453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x450a…c24fbacked Yes62c812.9$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d92…b63dbacked Yes26c787.9$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.611513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5138…3d13backed Yes64c763.45$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.01771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x76bc…205bbacked No70c735.91$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.233351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.