Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $110K in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07765790775e001e7fc7ba31dc82954e989ba6ae713fe37340964f34b25d5752
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,407,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,428,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,407,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d8…a862backed No | 78c | 516,601$403,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403,492.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed2…e8c6backed No | 1c | 219,510$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 26c | 217,986$56,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161,140.65 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 32c | 206,157$66,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139,721.33 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 40c | 135,139$54,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,656.58 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f23…bfe3backed Yes | 41c | 108,081$44,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,071.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 74c | 65,555$48,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,349.31 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 34c | 60,916$20,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,385.81 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed Yes | 28c | 57,504$16,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,235.2 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 44c | 49,143$21,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,577.4 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes | 28c | 47,654$13,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,110.48 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 44c | 36,251$15,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,428.73 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed No | 78c | 31,089$24,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,318.46 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 23c | 28,912$6,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,270.31 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes | 34c | 25,408$8,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,646.3 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 56c | 23,331$13,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,127.17 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 44c | 18,878$8,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,522.94 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…92e2backed No | 72c | 18,162$13,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,132.84 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 26c | 17,476$4,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,857.58 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked No | 67c | 16,478$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 35c | 15,670$5,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,193.43 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 38c | 15,492$5,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,557.45 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed Yes | 60c | 12,000$7,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,757.15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 61c | 11,139$6,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,382.52 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes | 21c | 11,049$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,709.47 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ae…15e0backed Yes | 18c | 10,964$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,963.74 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658d…b95dbacked Yes | 50c | 9,302$4,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,626.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 57c | 7,500$4,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,187.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2154…715cbacked No | 70c | 7,500$5,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,225 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 28c | 7,066$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.69 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 21c | 5,950$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,679.77 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked No | 64c | 5,924$3,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,764.21 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…efa0backed Yes | 69c | 5,768$4,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked No | 22c | 5,621$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 33c | 5,500$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed No | 24c | 5,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 58c | 5,000$2,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,113 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…eb5fbacked Yes | 44c | 4,466$1,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,516.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Yes | 58c | 4,374$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.09 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 76c | 4,301$3,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,275.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7694…2b66backed Yes | 54c | 4,180$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.59 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…f2fabacked No | 24c | 4,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.92 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…b2d3backed No | 16c | 3,800$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbb…22f0backed Yes | 69c | 3,796$2,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9615…38acbacked Yes | 54c | 3,790$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes | 30c | 3,613$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,525 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 3,524$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,628.03 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 24c | 3,374$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…0644backed Yes | 24c | 3,250$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458.32 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 10c | 3,175$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,857.5 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…3fdebacked No | 51c | 3,074$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.81 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…15c7backed Yes | 45c | 3,022$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 24c | 3,003$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268.41 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,370 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked No | 61c | 2,938$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,801.46 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…a7afbacked Yes | 20c | 2,911$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,325.84 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 11c | 2,872$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,556.25 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…8f91backed Yes | 19c | 2,789$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,245.62 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…cb9bbacked No | 35c | 2,601$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb36…09f3backed Yes | 45c | 2,203$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 27c | 2,157$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.15 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…4afdbacked Yes | 12c | 2,094$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,843.83 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…5d61backed No | 40c | 2,023$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 66c | 2,000$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.5 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3da…3d6abacked No | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…d54ebacked No | 32c | 2,000$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.5 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,916$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.15 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked No | 29c | 1,762$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.69 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ea…60c2backed Yes | 25c | 1,641$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.39 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 69c | 1,595$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…4bf3backed No | 50c | 1,595$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.89 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd321…a77fbacked No | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.92 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 54c | 1,491$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…ff11backed No | 68c | 1,402$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.78 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…823cbacked No | 34c | 1,386$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.1 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8378…8b50backed Yes | 72c | 1,291$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6343…bf0abacked Yes | 75c | 1,283$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431d…b7a6backed No | 33c | 1,230$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed Yes | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…dd1abacked Yes | 75c | 1,191$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.35 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed No | 13c | 1,127$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…ff2abacked No | 53c | 1,100$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed Yes | 32c | 1,095$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.95 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…2ec7backed Yes | 23c | 1,010$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…0a62backed No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9a72backed No | 25c | 996$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…e5bebacked No | 50c | 990.85$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 74c | 933.92$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked No | 57c | 911.54$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.07 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…0138backed No | 41c | 900$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.55 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 49c | 899.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.99 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 33c | 816.23$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.18 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450a…c24fbacked Yes | 62c | 812.9$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d92…b63dbacked Yes | 26c | 787.9$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.61 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…3d13backed Yes | 64c | 763.45$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…205bbacked No | 70c | 735.91$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.23 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110K in August?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $111K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $117K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.