TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,930,965
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,988,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,930,965 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 555 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde24…25a8backed Yes1c184,174$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.68590%0 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8803…eb1dbacked No78c73,131$56,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,383.331435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes32c72,997$23,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,313.387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes19c53,656$10,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,340.684736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f29…9d73backed Yes41c46,423$18,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,816.81650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No60c45,889$27,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,261.4410545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes19c43,362$8,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,374.9222216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes8c40,000$3,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,109.7319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Yes42c32,585$13,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,715.11631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-51.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes8c31,651$2,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,384.8811316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8187…d1c8backed Yes67c31,026$20,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,854.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Yes35c30,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,499.984242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe779…87e0backed No58c28,296$16,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,963.981163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+58.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes54c26,900$14,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,474.337745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed No77c26,443$20,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,150.994047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ea4…4bf3backed Yes31c26,040$7,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,987.922821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes0c25,190$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.98195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-93.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes34c22,938$7,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,703.3663835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes16c21,664$3,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,422.3925824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8664…dd88backed No67c19,474$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,474.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No64c19,036$12,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,846.245662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes7c17,727$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.4418425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Yes71c16,872$12,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,033.85911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba97…12cfbacked Yes9c15,389$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed No51c15,000$7,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,308.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e22…f021backed Yes37c14,415$5,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,309.381421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-63%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes13c14,284$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.982759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e92…f606backed Yes18c12,928$2,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a2…5e16backed Yes29c12,214$3,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,593.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc20e…0a5ebacked Yes3c12,143$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.613823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd29…102cbacked Yes48c11,618$5,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,614.8570%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes9c11,384$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.7512259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes3c10,872$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351230%0 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7694…2b66backed Yes49c10,840$5,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,299.261936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a6f…4999backed No66c10,773$7,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,612.621163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes26c10,480$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,701.9640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5bb…a429backed No68c10,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2004151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1032…8f91backed No54c9,811$5,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,505.073847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No58c9,470$5,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,962.028038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1b3…942cbacked No53c8,995$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,195.471338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes1c8,532$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.014517.8%8 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes18c8,530$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.314337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes40c8,451$3,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,353.653426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed No53c8,228$4,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,868.011030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes31c8,000$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4804528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7614…ac0abacked Yes54c7,913$4,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,272.992850%14 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes2c7,839$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.370%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa601…d54ebacked Yes32c7,750$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,507.233732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c7,538$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.851,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes39c7,186$2,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,814.2858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No75c6,800$5,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68013863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5c…b34abacked Yes74c6,751$4,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,995.16837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes22c6,500$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45511726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf68…a25ebacked No64c6,491$4,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,355.251154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+37.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9133…aa0fbacked Yes8c6,080$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.42268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5131…cd65backed Yes63c6,072$3,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,855.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes3c6,061$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d2…233abacked Yes60c6,059$3,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,634.561040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed No68c6,000$4,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.711573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No66c6,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0407163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes56c6,000$3,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3406950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7fbb…22f0backed No65c5,856$3,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.56771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes8c5,850$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.479824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f1c…1cedbacked Yes14c5,788$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbe…1c89backed Yes2c5,465$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed No75c5,303$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.911353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc54d…72f8backed Yes11c5,280$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.9812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-79.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0592…70e7backed Yes14c5,025$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x457d…0f36backed Yes4c5,004$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.81185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-90.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes12c5,000$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.996810.3%7 W · 61 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes4c4,920$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.52766.7%18 W · 9 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+41.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9615…38acbacked Yes10c4,883$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.951428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabdd…f499backed Yes32c4,845$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.0540%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf714…74d6backed No63c4,800$3,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,788.651070%7 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c08…6507backed Yes70c4,732$3,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,312.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes9c4,199$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.3523411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebf7…da78backed No61c4,158$2,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.035761.4%35 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes17c4,000$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6947810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked No64c4,000$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.98933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69eb…46e5backed Yes4c3,971$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.414231%13 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e8…1f11backed Yes19c3,896$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe816…ff03backed Yes2c3,881$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.02633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+49.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes63c3,850$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.3716761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Yes55c3,840$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1106468.8%44 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked No55c3,824$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.24683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cba…7a80backed Yes8c3,810$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.761957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed No37c3,791$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,406.291050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…1d80backed Yes5c3,712$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.123732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21e8…2f81backed Yes8c3,490$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.21758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes3c3,434$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8519439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd321…a77fbacked No70c3,427$2,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.384763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe25…4e99backed No68c3,421$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.381662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a38…360bbacked Yes7c3,345$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.721165.2%6 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf68…3fdebacked Yes70c3,300$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3101921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick42cpaid-45.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked No13c3,254$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,833.55450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+169.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed No70c3,100$2,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.477652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes19c3,024$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.055514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed No65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0501866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c5…3533backed No79c3,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6404656.5%26 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid+11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed Yes26c2,994$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.025955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.