TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $111K in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,886,126
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,016,190

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,886,126 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56d8…a862backed No69c444,843$305,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305,646.59862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes36c183,257$65,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117,453.1458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes33c146,534$49,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,470.5922216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes41c123,722$50,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,263.1637745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bae…3a9bbacked No13c82,551$10,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,41940%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebf7…da78backed Yes37c81,340$29,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,393.075761.4%35 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x09ea…0fc1backed No0c70,279$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes48c56,908$27,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,549.7818425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f23…bfe3backed No9c54,429$4,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,963.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-38.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes24c42,050$10,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,993.44047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No53c35,793$19,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,133.781361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No49c22,000$10,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,824.9810545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No11c17,750$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.1355032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes46c16,850$7,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,026.7412824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…323fbacked No75c13,436$10,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,063.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes39c13,312$5,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,173.2216761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb37…fbacbacked No62c11,900$7,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,353.092441.7%10 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes38c10,548$4,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,501.4925824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes72c9,000$6,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5506950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcde8…018ebacked No65c8,800$5,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,697.46922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes39c7,970$3,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,887.167652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8643…cb9bbacked No41c7,805$3,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,209.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No33c7,466$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.3112736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes49c6,148$3,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.072759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4131…7a55backed Yes32c5,681$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,881.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+215.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes41c5,545$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,259.117540%30 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed No70c5,451$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,800.491866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes36c5,425$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,463.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc728…9c2dbacked No3c5,302$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.361764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No58c5,222$3,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,028.548038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No69c4,649$3,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,215.422766.7%18 W · 9 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+41.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No57c4,360$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.49824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No43c4,206$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.127219.4%14 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Yes36c4,011$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,567.116468.8%44 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2154…715cbacked No59c3,985$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.952142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes30c3,672$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.8511554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes69c3,646$2,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.912259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No50c3,600$1,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7865639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked No54c3,579$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.779913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked No24c3,108$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.245240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked No33c3,041$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0105747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x277f…ed32backed Yes80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc79…fa6bbacked No77c2,737$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,118.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8f…0644backed Yes39c2,700$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.734050%20 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked Yes37c2,500$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.8615754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82ea…60c2backed Yes38c2,200$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.244153.7%22 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No25c2,050$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.943831.6%12 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf009…eb5fbacked Yes49c2,010$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.651136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaec1…ddfebacked Yes48c2,000$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.21546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No72c2,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44013863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df0…2bfcbacked Yes39c1,915$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.243756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+33.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes30c1,667$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.6711726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c1b…20debacked Yes66c1,663$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.072050%10 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes59c1,508$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.864136.6%15 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x837c…efc1backed Yes69c1,507$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.834065%26 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf68…3fdebacked No34c1,480$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.21921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick42cpaid-45.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed No16c1,438$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2275822.4%13 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b2f…cd03backed Yes18c1,417$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.673056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e1e…a7afbacked No73c1,300$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.654143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d3…9a72backed Yes46c1,300$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.81250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…8075backed Yes70c1,280$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.24671.7%33 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+15.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f50…f7cdbacked Yes68c1,030$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.851030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-55.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No66c950$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.511658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd68e…4afdbacked Yes16c937.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.52744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes80c928$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.282259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…9027backed No36c917.73$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked No2c900$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d92…b63dbacked Yes35c816.27$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.461513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd135…9c62backed Yes67c812.6$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.563070%21 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6b6…af8bbacked Yes70c800$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.114075.7%106 W · 34 L+17.6wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+22.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked Yes42c750$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43518162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes43c700$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4013925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-49.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76bc…205bbacked Yes40c698.53$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.793351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c87…c35fbacked Yes27c607.89$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes27c602.33$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.6319439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ca…0138backed Yes46c569.21$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.722060%12 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+34.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x12d7…cf4bbacked Yes68c567.71$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.573672.2%26 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee8…cfaabacked Yes65c540.2$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.121855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x102e…1793backed No69c520.67$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.2620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa455…8806backed Yes63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce09…6b0bbacked No70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503658.3%21 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2057767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes64c499.5$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.391546.7%7 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick69cpaid-34.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No38c494.58$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.275514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd574…425dbacked Yes77c470.97$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.322875%21 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ea4…4bf3backed No77c469.73$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.552821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5924…c4dbbacked Yes22c454.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a25…c174backed Yes69c452.84$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.521030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes64c450.69$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1616527.7%18 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ee5…7bf0backed No45c445$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.253342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6b7…98aebacked Yes70c423.09$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.933871.1%27 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x87ee…041bbacked Yes30c400$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9133…aa0fbacked Yes68c393.65$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.082268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes22c390$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.5515023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x134d…1da2backed Yes74c376.03$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.45164.7%33 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcca0…3738backed Yes27c371.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.851643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f8d…436bbacked Yes38c356.63$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.111216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x218e…e49dbacked No41c324.55$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.851471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+23.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No29c324$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.258239%32 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e07…6fabbacked No70c323.26$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.