Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b3bb68608cef11c230310192eee057b2ca734305edf2d0a21bb5f817c40cc2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $815,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $848,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $815,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 3c | 112,861$3,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,540.48 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…d4dcbacked Yes | 7c | 62,537$4,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,116.94 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 7c | 39,597$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,581.35 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 4c | 13,486$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.43 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 6c | 11,907$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.49 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…7badbacked Yes | 5c | 10,201$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 10,149$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 10c | 9,999$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 4c | 8,468$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.13 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 5c | 7,502$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.98 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 7,242$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.21 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…998cbacked Yes | 11c | 7,200$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1462…156ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,161$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 4c | 5,580$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.11 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1d…555fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,860$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.43 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5914…88fcbacked Yes | 5c | 4,077$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 11c | 4,010$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.1 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,000$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.05 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf23d…b77abacked Yes | 3c | 3,700$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d92…b63dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,503$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068d…70d3backed Yes | 0c | 2,522$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…9837backed Yes | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…eff2backed Yes | 5c | 2,310$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.52 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,038$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ea…4815backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb873…7999backed Yes | 9c | 1,900$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,879$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 8c | 1,660$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.75 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…b36abacked Yes | 2c | 1,351$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -86%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 1,318$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 3c | 1,250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…784ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,213$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 6c | 1,120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…438dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec35…cea9backed Yes | 6c | 1,064$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…e448backed Yes | 2c | 999.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 3c | 883.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f71…912dbacked Yes | 3c | 829.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d1…fd35backed Yes | 3c | 800.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 799.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…5615backed Yes | 6c | 656.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…e4d5backed Yes | 3c | 576.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…0b51backed Yes | 3c | 562$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…fa43backed Yes | 3c | 544$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…ce75backed Yes | 4c | 451$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 5c | 450$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 8c | 440$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 6c | 420.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b1…ab14backed Yes | 4c | 391$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 5c | 378$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed Yes | 12c | 340$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…8456backed Yes | 3c | 316$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…5075backed Yes | 4c | 302$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…4620backed Yes | 7c | 290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1b…8d9abacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6885…9ee5backed Yes | 4c | 263$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71de…9269backed Yes | 4c | 258$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41a7…f3ddbacked Yes | 4c | 241$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca5…6785backed Yes | 5c | 224.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…55e9backed Yes | 8c | 208.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7614…ac0abacked Yes | 7c | 185.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 6c | 161.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 10c | 160.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…a9c4backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $111K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $117K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.