TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,007,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,338,071

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,007,853 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes3c339,401$10,895 inLost-$10,894.951198.4%10 W · 109 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+90.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c27,999$31 inLost-$311360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c16,099$23 inLost-$23.22290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes0c15,000$45 inLost-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes2c8,841$135 inLost-$135.1925824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes1c7,000$48 inLost-$486425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c5,868$148 inLost-$147.981,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes1c5,392$73 inLost-$73.336311.1%7 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+519.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x495e…ad10backed Yes1c3,999$40 inLost-$39.99120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…21c5backed Yes2c3,600$60 inLost-$60.260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x105e…b066backed Yes1c2,690$26 inLost-$26.4119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0c3…8cd8backed Yes2c2,500$50 inLost-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-78%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0b6…f594backed Yes2c2,400$41 inLost-$40.840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c1,883$18 inLost-$18.36510%0 W · 51 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc2cd…4620backed Yes3c1,455$40 inLost-$40195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x837b…e8bebacked Yes1c1,354$20 inLost-$202313%3 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6af4…4f1ebacked Yes2c1,284$21 inLost-$21.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06c0…5615backed Yes1c1,151$15 inLost-$14.96110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fdd…b061backed Yes1c1,030$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes1c849.98$11 inLost-$10.754017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-56.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aff…7b63backed Yes4c457.78$20 inLost-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-71.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes3c374.09$11 inLost-$11.265514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes3c358.74$10 inLost-$10.276527.7%18 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce73…544abacked Yes4c317.07$13 inLost-$1340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.