TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,681,807
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,720,912

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,681,807 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde24…25a8backed Yes1c115,214$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.22590%0 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes8c75,137$6,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,259.5319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes16c75,043$11,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,847.2687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes11c58,692$6,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,628.6122216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes14c41,323$5,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,901.894736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes15c29,944$4,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,351.531910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes5c24,000$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.56425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf15b…5ab9backed No74c23,376$17,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,079.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+122%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed Yes27c22,185$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0008017.5%14 W · 66 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f1…6712backed No70c19,937$13,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,945.381080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes21c19,186$3,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,984.8663835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5724…73e5backed Yes23c18,500$4,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,179.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56d8…a862backed No78c17,649$13,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,890.33862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes20c15,820$3,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,166.1715023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes22c15,491$3,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,462.4858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes6c15,293$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.938713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes16c13,332$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,191.611316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes3c11,000$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2926810.3%7 W · 61 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c10,070$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.211360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes19c10,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.92248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Yes40c9,328$3,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7766468.8%44 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5637…1a14backed No69c8,681$5,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,730.95966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes25c8,495$2,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,124.9155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x269c…58c2backed Yes5c8,186$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400506%3 W · 47 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes19c8,043$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.0725824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed No63c8,000$5,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9804242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1032…8f91backed No72c7,646$5,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.323847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes1c7,613$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.923411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc54d…72f8backed Yes5c7,134$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-79.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b52…4db0backed No66c6,944$4,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.86053.3%32 W · 28 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes2c6,819$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113230%0 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes40c6,500$2,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,619.696950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfd32…c9c1backed Yes7c6,220$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.81717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8666…d7c7backed Yes18c5,559$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes48c5,400$2,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,59211726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x226d…4142backed Yes1c5,339$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa601…d54ebacked Yes19c4,845$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.433732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Yes17c4,834$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.721631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-51.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x57ea…a29cbacked Yes14c4,812$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.361020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…942cbacked No65c4,627$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.921338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd29…102cbacked Yes26c4,350$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.6870%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,163$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.621,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf7…da78backed No77c4,159$3,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.075761.4%35 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes6c4,000$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.887810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes5c3,942$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.864517.8%8 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes2c3,754$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a18…55c7backed Yes53c3,561$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c2…c25fbacked Yes18c3,541$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x376b…f45abacked Yes25c3,500$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d2…233abacked Yes33c3,443$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.41040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed No51c3,399$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.36966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes15c3,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.955240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes4c3,001$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0314337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf750…4abbbacked Yes25c3,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75011442.1%48 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No57c2,999$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.6510545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1462…156ebacked Yes3c2,984$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.09130%0 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes15c2,808$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.58728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick8cpaid+107.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes26c2,705$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.4264812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No65c2,698$1,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.577767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes15c2,613$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.366527.7%18 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes25c2,603$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.6437745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe34e…bd53backed No80c2,387$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.081361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda82…eb29backed Yes29c2,383$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe597…9c19backed Yes25c2,328$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5045…7e27backed Yes13c2,310$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6271…784ebacked Yes16c2,290$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3752718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ee…4ab8backed Yes3c2,271$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2690%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60f8…32f2backed No75c2,256$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.121283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57cd…12b0backed Yes2c2,150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked No66c2,000$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.88683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes21c2,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-88.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked No50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0005747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes10c1,922$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.295514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e4f…0652backed Yes14c1,899$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.562516%4 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-59.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63fb…4367backed Yes14c1,870$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.77520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x052c…5a0ebacked No80c1,756$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8d…436bbacked Yes5c1,646$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.311216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked Yes18c1,643$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.742218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84e8…d6c3backed Yes4c1,600$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572030%6 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee2…b9cbbacked Yes14c1,565$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.160%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes19c1,400$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266330%0 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87ee…041bbacked Yes18c1,356$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.5425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45ef…d3f6backed Yes3c1,350$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.093020%6 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba0…cee3backed Yes38c1,321$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50080%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No65c1,262$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.339054.4%49 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No69c1,200$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3725639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63e1…92e6backed Yes1c1,189$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x136e…9a6cbacked Yes2c1,183$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a04…ae43backed Yes3c1,167$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes5c1,132$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561030%0 W · 103 L-7.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0556…b36abacked Yes3c1,130$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.14362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-86%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca2…134fbacked No63c1,105$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.474146.3%19 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf2a…8d43backed No75c1,100$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes39c1,036$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39934848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf0…e09fbacked Yes21c1,005$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.841216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x457d…0f36backed Yes4c1,004$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-90.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb192…cc5cbacked Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb78b…5d40backed Yes28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca4…9837backed Yes18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803721.6%8 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09aa…d10fbacked Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.