TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $112K in August?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$143,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$145,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,536 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2360…1c1cbacked No7c16,389$1,150 inLost-$1,1501643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+68.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebf7…da78backed No2c14,523$289 inLost-$2895761.4%35 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ca2…ca68backed No0c10,819$50 inLost-$501650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No6c6,700$409 inLost-$408.55639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked No10c5,000$500 inLost-$5005240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6453…5553backed No8c3,766$306 inLost-$305.65850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No2c2,527$51 inLost-$50.531428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c2,464$46 inLost-$45.991,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked No10c2,337$223 inLost-$222.955453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No9c2,050$185 inLost-$1853831.6%12 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8643…cb9bbacked No10c2,000$190 inLost-$190633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked No8c1,100$83 inLost-$8315023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No11c909.09$100 inLost-$1002222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked No11c750$83 inLost-$82.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9682…ff2abacked No12c521.43$61 inLost-$60.93036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x806d…d6f1backed No7c434.93$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe38b…8996backed No7c352.38$23 inLost-$233740.5%15 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No8c300$24 inLost-$248239%32 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9366…3b90backed No10c250$25 inLost-$251931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf750…4abbbacked No14c200$28 inLost-$2811442.1%48 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7479…fbecbacked No10c199.99$20 inLost-$205747.4%27 W · 30 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed No11c183.33$20 inLost-$201030%0 W · 103 L-7.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No11c179.78$20 inLost-$19.781533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed No15c100$15 inLost-$153234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6ad…959cbacked No14c100$14 inLost-$143669.4%25 W · 11 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.