Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x236ffa98d07ed71a9cd54488b3ecbdd1f37a1fda08c7165c4e664236cd76de03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,099,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,966,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,099,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 0c | 314,996$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes | 0c | 224,021$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…d4dcbacked Yes | 0c | 192,009$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.03 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…0ec7backed Yes | 0c | 142,179$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.51 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -97.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 0c | 126,260$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.18 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes | 0c | 115,249$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 0c | 74,097$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.66 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…66ffbacked Yes | 1c | 70,671$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes | 0c | 70,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 35,752$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 0c | 34,542$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.31 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 0c | 31,361$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.18 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457d…0f36backed Yes | 0c | 29,366$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.23 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f1…2417backed Yes | 0c | 27,360$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 0c | 26,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9615…38acbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 1c | 19,927$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…b93bbacked Yes | 1c | 18,959$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x105e…b066backed Yes | 0c | 18,500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,127$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 1c | 13,209$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…102cbacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 0c | 11,012$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbe…1c89backed Yes | 0c | 10,156$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5131…2541backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2a…cbefbacked Yes | 0c | 6,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…544abacked Yes | 0c | 5,588$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,509$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…75e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…4e9dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,299$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8f…ef41backed Yes | 1c | 2,780$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…f8b9backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf052…a61dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $111K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $117K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120K in August?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.