TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,152,000
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,068,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,152,000 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde24…25a8backed Yes2c364,373$7,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,281.77590%0 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes8c80,942$6,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,844.364736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc54…d4dcbacked Yes7c80,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,200147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes7c72,800$5,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,301.322216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes4c69,284$2,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,964.751910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes10c65,899$6,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,487.4211726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes9c65,061$5,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,540.0887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed Yes13c55,998$7,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3018017.5%14 W · 66 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes5c27,030$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.096425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes12c26,950$3,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,185.9458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d5…df2fbacked Yes10c26,840$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa040…907bbacked Yes7c26,749$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes3c25,666$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.539913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6a…0eadbacked Yes0c25,570$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes9c23,838$2,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,223.9715023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes11c23,749$2,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,568.2511316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Yes12c20,842$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.0540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0107…7ec3backed Yes18c16,025$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,919.871513.3%2 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…096abacked No78c13,560$10,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,924.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd39f…d494backed Yes8c13,317$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes1c13,165$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.323411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c12,498$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes8c10,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes1c9,625$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77230%0 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes13c8,775$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.4655032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c6,709$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.791,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes8c6,514$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.85375.4%2 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x269c…58c2backed Yes5c6,052$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300506%3 W · 47 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc54d…72f8backed Yes5c6,050$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-79.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee2…b9cbbacked Yes7c5,715$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.660%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes9c5,555$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.955240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes25c5,421$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.638713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes3c5,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1456810.3%7 W · 61 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6271…784ebacked Yes9c4,388$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.332718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd29…102cbacked Yes12c4,307$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.6570%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47ee…4ab8backed Yes6c4,182$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.4890%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x832f…a0e1backed Yes7c4,000$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.92100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes1c3,210$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa601…d54ebacked Yes8c3,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d94…232ebacked No73c2,863$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.985100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+101.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f71…912dbacked Yes6c2,838$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.26695.8%4 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65fe…e38fbacked Yes12c2,801$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4512…84f9backed Yes7c2,694$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ee…041bbacked Yes12c2,563$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.73425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb17…dc94backed Yes4c2,465$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8301…5068backed Yes8c2,422$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x136e…9a6cbacked Yes10c2,401$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.96911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f2a…cbefbacked Yes8c2,200$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1761127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c2,133$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.1164812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x105e…b066backed Yes3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca4…9837backed Yes9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.963721.6%8 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes6c1,966$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.96248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes7c1,854$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.83306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-84.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1462…156ebacked Yes1c1,786$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.75130%0 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a38…360bbacked Yes12c1,762$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.651165.2%6 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0926…51dabacked Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-86%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes10c1,600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-78.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x837b…e8bebacked Yes8c1,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202313%3 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09aa…d10fbacked Yes10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44d2…0c43backed Yes1c1,495$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b39…abbabacked Yes7c1,401$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes8c1,382$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes8c1,362$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121030%0 W · 103 L-7.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes6c1,359$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.326527.7%18 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes2c1,348$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.584517.8%8 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4cbd…5010backed Yes9c1,323$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.711118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick11cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa015…80bbbacked Yes8c1,275$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10290%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ad…46c9backed Yes9c1,222$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e4f…0652backed Yes9c1,184$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.882516%4 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-59.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x361a…db54backed Yes10c1,054$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88c5…df27backed Yes2c1,031$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Yes12c1,008$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf750…4abbbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011442.1%48 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d1…fd35backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-83.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69eb…46e5backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304231%13 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00b7…ab78backed Yes15c999.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-70.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0812…a9b4backed Yes8c934.05$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe340…3ec2backed Yes17c842.03$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f8…32f2backed No75c814.07$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.231283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes6c777$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.957231.9%23 W · 49 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92eb…986abacked Yes13c767.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8c…ae26backed Yes3c692.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes6c687.75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.085514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba4…55e9backed Yes4c668.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.45110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd3…3afebacked Yes10c666$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes12c657.81$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7263835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb835…c272backed Yes16c610.69$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes10c605.06$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick22cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d28…04f7backed Yes10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No76c599.99$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1425639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11b5…5c1fbacked Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed No75c555.52$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.887652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes11c545.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…eb94backed Yes17c531.38$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes3c531$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.027121.1%15 W · 56 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked No78c518.99$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.18683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x699d…4260backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.232270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee6b…a519backed Yes2c473$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe918…dd23backed Yes7c414.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27210%0 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.