TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfe03…f14f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
109
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Lol, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4524.4%11 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$2,693Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,692.73
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,601Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+522.3%+$13,583.93
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$321Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+94.9%+$304.33
Will Lionel Messi score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$455Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+116.4%+$529.81
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,296.07
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13,177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,177.3
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12,915Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12,915.18
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18,326Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$18,325.7
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13,698Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,697.82
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18,904Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$18,904.25
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$185
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$7,188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,187.82
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$895Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$895.48
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$6,475Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,474.84
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$4,504Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,504.13
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.04
Will the announcers say "Ref" or "Referee" 10+ times during the Canada vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$23.2
Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Canada vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$17.2
Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,936Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,936.22
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Colombia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$593Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$412.04
Will the announcers say "Free Kick" 10+ times during the Argentina vs Cape Verde FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.79
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-70.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$331.02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,380
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$321Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+55.5%+$178.04
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$889Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$889.15
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.55
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$232.8
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.44
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$27.55
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.18
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.79
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$424Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$423.61
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,054Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,053.54
US x Iran ceasefire before August? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$30
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$7,888Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,888.27
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$22,749Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$22,749.4
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$6,318Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,317.83
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.19
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$85.1
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$66
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$415Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$415.3
Will the ECB announce an increase at the October meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will the ECB announce no change at the October meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.69
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.9
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.42
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$603Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$602.6
All 14 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+115.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+463.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+117.4%+$540
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+809.1%+$178
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+262.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$35,221Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+52.5%+$18,478.35
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,211Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,211.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$239.55
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$248.48
All 2 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.