Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7618e80c410d107b9929455007e4ccf649630ac6aec6a76ebcd04ae9946dd514
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $325,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $363,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3eed…cb2abacked Yes | 15c | 17,816$2,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…d498backed Yes | 21c | 10,000$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…a308backed Yes | 23c | 8,364$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 22c | 7,652$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.56 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3c98backed Yes | 11c | 4,934$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 23c | 4,167$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.66 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 3,687$2,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 3,464$2,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 77c | 3,318$2,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…c177backed Yes | 19c | 2,354$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 16c | 2,352$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.71 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 2,305$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.02 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 2,260$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.54 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…b8f4backed Yes | 21c | 2,136$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…3a16backed No | 78c | 2,101$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 20c | 1,706$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 9c | 1,701$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 23c | 1,564$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 67c | 1,548$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…29bdbacked Yes | 22c | 1,448$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 77c | 1,094$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 77c | 900$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa4…cd4ebacked Yes | 13c | 878.77$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 876.82$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 24c | 787.21$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked Yes | 18c | 758.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 12c | 731.07$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…0d58backed Yes | 18c | 670.54$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 654$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 622.82$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.36 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 77c | 612.6$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.16 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…7bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 600$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…f8bfbacked Yes | 17c | 599.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…5b53backed Yes | 18c | 557.87$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 18c | 538.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 17c | 531.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 18c | 514.49$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 74c | 475.67$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 19c | 471.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…d7cdbacked Yes | 24c | 453.26$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…8099backed Yes | 10c | 445.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 80c | 426.49$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed No | 76c | 420.38$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 79c | 414.75$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e7…a1b8backed Yes | 15c | 408.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…f4c9backed No | 77c | 407.99$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked Yes | 18c | 404.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 77c | 400$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…f8e7backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a3…9b79backed Yes | 21c | 395.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 19c | 358$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 349.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 17c | 344.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 17c | 336.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x384c…2688backed Yes | 21c | 331.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6507…7d79backed Yes | 16c | 329.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 67c | 326.53$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 14c | 326$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 77c | 324$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…9dfebacked Yes | 18c | 315.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856a…41bcbacked No | 66c | 305.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x428f…5d1bbacked Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f92…d732backed Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…caebbacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…cf82backed Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked Yes | 24c | 295$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…8774backed No | 79c | 290.1$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…9a17backed No | 77c | 283.93$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 24c | 282.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…ee6abacked Yes | 32c | 261.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc43…810dbacked Yes | 22c | 259.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 18c | 257.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…8d83backed Yes | 23c | 250$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 244.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 19c | 242.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…ff5dbacked Yes | 24c | 240.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…dbe0backed Yes | 21c | 237$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 21c | 234.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…59c6backed Yes | 25c | 226.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…1e28backed Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 224.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 77c | 204.29$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8b…d0c8backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…699ebacked No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Yes | 16c | 185.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Yes | 8c | 185$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…79b0backed Yes | 24c | 171.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 19c | 170.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 169.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked Yes | 16c | 169.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf400…1620backed Yes | 17c | 168.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…2a2cbacked Yes | 24c | 168$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 76c | 167.38$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 21c | 164.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe033…40a5backed Yes | 7c | 164.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…c15fbacked Yes | 9c | 164$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8476…34dbbacked Yes | 17c | 159.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?this page
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.