Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x647fe897e10ecde7f5bf00b420cd00b76634b7de8830ae683136c9d3102c5532
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $466,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $516,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $466,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed No | 10c | 50,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed No | 13c | 22,299$2,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,864.62 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 80c | 14,470$11,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,912.77 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…cb2abacked No | 17c | 11,059$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed No | 15c | 10,163$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.8 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 16c | 10,080$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 18c | 4,733$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 74c | 4,369$3,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.72 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 3,802$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 3,725$2,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.75 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 22c | 3,468$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…b8f4backed No | 25c | 3,327$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 73c | 3,188$2,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 73c | 3,100$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 73c | 2,973$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 23c | 2,898$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c01…797dbacked No | 9c | 2,487$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed Yes | 66c | 2,448$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…00f8backed Yes | 76c | 2,402$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 20c | 2,329$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 77c | 2,084$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.49 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…0e6dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,880$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…9dfebacked No | 17c | 1,660$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…7e7cbacked No | 19c | 1,647$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 1,570$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 61c | 1,463$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.62 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 20c | 1,428$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.28 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…3a16backed No | 15c | 1,294$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 7c | 1,179$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed No | 19c | 1,176$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 23c | 1,092$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 1,065$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.83 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 22c | 999.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.3 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 20c | 990.5$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 976.97$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 20c | 967.04$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…a0f3backed Yes | 76c | 967$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 78c | 931.9$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.1 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…6ae7backed Yes | 77c | 844.87$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 23c | 800.01$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 701.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 679.91$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 14c | 650.04$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes | 78c | 642.99$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 26c | 640$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…8774backed Yes | 80c | 576.47$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8476…34dbbacked No | 16c | 572.69$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633a…844dbacked No | 19c | 558.42$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…e4e0backed Yes | 73c | 521$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 19c | 515.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…c3b1backed No | 17c | 479.14$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed No | 12c | 471.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 470.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 23c | 468.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 3c | 443.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 78c | 441.11$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed No | 25c | 440.39$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 21c | 434.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a3…9b79backed Yes | 78c | 422.83$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…c177backed No | 19c | 422.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 20c | 416.62$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked No | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 15c | 399.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 17c | 380.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 76c | 364$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…d0dbbacked Yes | 78c | 362.66$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 18c | 355.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 6c | 354.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…a308backed No | 22c | 344.51$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed No | 21c | 336.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked No | 13c | 336.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 18c | 331.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0260…0d88backed Yes | 78c | 315.21$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 19c | 293.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 286.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed No | 26c | 284.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 77c | 283.82$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 7c | 280.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…cf1fbacked Yes | 76c | 259.09$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…76a7backed No | 25c | 252.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…4461backed No | 25c | 252.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…5b53backed No | 19c | 230.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 24c | 226.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 23c | 210$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 207.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…5668backed Yes | 40c | 207.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x053c…9677backed No | 6c | 205$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e8…32d2backed No | 6c | 205$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 23c | 200.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…1e28backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 17c | 198.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…5c27backed No | 6c | 198$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 22c | 188.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…b046backed No | 27c | 187.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd658…2525backed Yes | 79c | 186.05$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked Yes | 79c | 181.83$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 23c | 173.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 24c | 170$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 16c | 167$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 164.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?this page
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?No won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.