TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9687…1b7c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
104
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Tweets, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 53 out of 100; worst Weather at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AIlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT2133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+72.6%+$52.57
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.77
Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.27
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+499%+$149.95
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.92
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.25
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.36
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.4
Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$176.57
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.75
Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+929.2%+$549.83
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$233.14
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$241.07
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.38
Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+245.7%+$42.64
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+172.6%+$37.99
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+115.8%+$21.46
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.73
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.38
All 21 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+226.6%+$45.1
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$44.4
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.4
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+110.1%+$78.6
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+184.6%+$22.7
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.6
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.45
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+101.6%+$25.2
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+198.9%+$36.6
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.65
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.47
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+88.1%+$14.05
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.79
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+125.2%+$13.9
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$9.6
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.22
All 18 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+595.4%+$89.9
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.8
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.14
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.1
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+65.5%+$159.53
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.61
Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.76
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.31
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+86.5%+$18.55
Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+25%+$3
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+86.8%+$44.61
Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.27
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$31.85
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.24
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.64
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$25.33
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.27
All 17 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+67.6%+$7.26
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+187.9%+$21.21
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.23
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.68
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.32
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$17.98
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.31
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+243.3%+$34.02
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.84
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.47
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.81
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.97
All 12 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.99
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and 280m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.88
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 220m and 240m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.76
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 200m and 220m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.27
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.49
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+354.7%+$170.06
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 95m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.07
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.82
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 77m and 86m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.24
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+69.1%+$9.4
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+61%+$9.09
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+272.3%+$51.2
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.2
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.23
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+50.3%+$160.93
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.14
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.17
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+781.5%+$249.12
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.49
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.32
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ÍF Vestri vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.