World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbf51c04cf05c3a99e590db75b95fc651e788870d26f983cfd2c42e9b4c9e0b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb70…f963backed Yes | 1c | 4,853$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes | 1c | 4,805$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7bf…51aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,652$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…56d3backed Yes | 4c | 1,152$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 3c | 1,066$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 3c | 481$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 3c | 430$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 5c | 312.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 10c | 131.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?Yes won
- Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.