TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,591
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,792

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,591 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec4d…be21backed Yes11c3,198$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No80c2,916$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.0634354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3afe…01d4backed Yes5c2,890$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1460%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf72c…f818backed No39c2,693$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.031127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbebe…72e1backed Yes55c2,600$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0da2…ef4abacked Yes9c2,579$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.84425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes19c1,651$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.7314126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No60c1,398$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.9252850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1229…df38backed Yes24c1,329$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.041421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes33c1,275$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.931560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-11.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f88…1d4dbacked Yes20c1,102$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.521428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c1,093$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.191,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No59c1,059$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.69254.3%50 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x371e…0df7backed Yes73c1,003$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ed…1ae4backed Yes57c941.92$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No66c906.99$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.7239952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c904.99$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.836055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes41c796.55$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.193444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes10c697.65$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.493823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes3c662.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.39128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65fb…297abacked Yes2c642.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes17c579.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7210542.9%45 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes26c481$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.141030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No79c467.95$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.7810646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Yes28c453.61$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdad7…005abacked Yes33c430$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.45425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No78c406.21$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5628558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes27c399.98$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.82740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes6c398.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.742128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No70c391.95$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.9415558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714d…c177backed Yes28c383.31$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4692…242cbacked Yes74c371.21$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.911546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+49.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x039b…9b6cbacked Yes13c370.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.81225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No69c356.06$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.073369.7%23 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes5c349.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.815328.3%15 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes9c340.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.826944.9%31 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes66c333.66$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.476835.3%24 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes16c310.46$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3817330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5195…44ebbacked Yes12c295$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.15714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid+37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9065…f13abacked Yes18c284.96$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No74c250$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.513348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5073…16a7backed Yes68c225.8$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.533246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes5c211.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.428236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e07…0439backed Yes15c199$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.45714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-77.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ac…c1fbbacked Yes26c190.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a9…e4fdbacked Yes35c168.12$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No53c162.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5820065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x91e5…0947backed Yes28c150$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.671650%8 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ef9…8f58backed Yes12c149$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes21c145$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1524110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c6…e5c2backed No29c137.65$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.07425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d66…6b1fbacked Yes31c129.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed Yes33c126.91$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.421315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-43.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes32c125.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.074766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No41c125$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9918762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes35c125$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.388838.6%34 W · 54 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No74c125$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.255855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x270b…e632backed Yes20c123.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No32c119.97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.176883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No36c116.49$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9612249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed Yes15c113.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.151947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes10c112.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.181676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes34c108.13$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.210344.7%46 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes10c106$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0814225.4%36 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e61…5a25backed No73c101.63$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.64580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+74.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.054266.7%28 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284327.9%12 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.723459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…9aeabacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf445…e7e3backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…c62ebacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3038…9368backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x017b…1315backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0748…103bbacked Yes12c99.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.95745.6%26 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb3…dcebbacked Yes30c93.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x061c…ba08backed Yes67c90.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.01650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c90$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5626355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f9b…a9aabacked Yes53c87.07$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.17742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes54c81$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5711045.5%50 W · 60 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6a1…ab16backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…04c2backed Yes71c74.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.47580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+184.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2a3…a7b0backed Yes69c73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba0f…1011backed Yes25c69.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.23616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-75.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc409…3dc3backed No33c60.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.934100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+73.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No62c60.01$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.793562.9%22 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe12c…def5backed Yes67c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-34.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No68c56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.754548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No38c54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.751346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03a4…3e32backed Yes26c51.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-62.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes29c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.358743.7%38 W · 49 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x584f…4aa9backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102138.1%8 W · 13 L-5.1wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-43.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd62b…ceecbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No55c46.92$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2899017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xcb70…f963backed Yes46c43.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No69c42.4$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked No73c40.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.914163.4%26 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No26c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.648854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.