TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb6a1…ab16

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
145
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 59 out of 100; worst NBA at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT6968.1%47 W · 22 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 69 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$12
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$9.8
England vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$18.13
England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+166.7%+$31.67
France vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$6.74
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$13.29
Argentina vs. Egypt: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Argentina vs. Egypt: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$20.71
Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$52.44
Mexico vs. England: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$16.15
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.28
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.76
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$8.5
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$22
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+25%+$9
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$11.9
Spread: United States (-2.5)backed Bosnia and Herzegovina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$29.87
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$13.03
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
France vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$22.11
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$10.71
Showing 25 of 69 picks, newest first.
South American Leagueslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT4872.9%35 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-08-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$7.89
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-08-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$97
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-08-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$52.04
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-08-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-08-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$10.8
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.2
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-08-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$10.4
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-08-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-08-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.4
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-08-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$16.34
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-08-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+25%+$7.5
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-08-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.29
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-07-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$31.5
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$15.22
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-07-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$14.1
Santos FC vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
CR Flamengo leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.74
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)backed São Paulo FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$21.32
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-07-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-07-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Santos FC win on 2026-07-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.6
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-07-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$13.44
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)backed EC Vitória · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$7.71
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.48
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.46
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+27%+$49.65
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.11
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on July 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+106.5%+$33.6
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.22
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+173.9%+$132.76
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.8
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.31
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+114.8%+$31
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+131.8%+$39.53
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+45.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$47.4
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.72
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$67.16
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+182.5%+$22.79
All 8 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$19.64
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)backed Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+61.2%+$17.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.