World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72c0a78cc4255678e80c3b13117a3d6c4134151963cb2e8bfb62478a71e5385e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes | 68c | 7,543$5,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,432.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3afe…01d4backed No | 3c | 7,235$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…f818backed Yes | 66c | 3,297$2,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 11c | 3,271$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.7 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 64c | 2,830$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.28 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 18c | 2,791$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.82 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…be21backed No | 13c | 2,575$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…cb2abacked No | 31c | 2,462$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…df38backed Yes | 72c | 2,410$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 64c | 2,254$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.28 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…f963backed Yes | 65c | 2,019$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 28c | 1,687$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.72 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 8c | 1,628$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.03 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 80c | 1,409$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.19 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 1,396$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.19 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 1,161$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.32 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 35c | 1,125$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.65 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 40c | 1,086$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.57 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe298…784ebacked Yes | 78c | 1,051$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0df7backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked No | 47c | 934.92$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 14c | 891.62$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.67 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 3c | 879.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x808a…ef3fbacked No | 2c | 836$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 17c | 771.74$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.92 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 2c | 701.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 30c | 679.78$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 13c | 651.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 21c | 585.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.59 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 18c | 582.58$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 11c | 579.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 558.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 10c | 548$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 29c | 508.58$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.18 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 506$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.67 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e61…5a25backed Yes | 71c | 496.7$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 67c | 481$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…cad2backed No | 2c | 439.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 13c | 435.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 59c | 430$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…242cbacked Yes | 38c | 430$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…3501backed Yes | 76c | 429.98$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 17c | 429.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 410.46$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.4 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 53c | 402.36$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.56 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 13c | 376$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…1d4dbacked Yes | 60c | 323.12$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 5c | 311.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 295.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 25c | 294.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…d6e1backed Yes | 34c | 292.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 24c | 271.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…56d3backed Yes | 27c | 265.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…44c8backed No | 18c | 263.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 257.69$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 250.85$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 9c | 241$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…700dbacked Yes | 30c | 222.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…ae4abacked Yes | 23c | 206.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba9b…6ad9backed No | 19c | 196$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bb…e85ebacked Yes | 35c | 195$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…4b3cbacked No | 18c | 179$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…0789backed Yes | 78c | 164.77$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…e4fdbacked Yes | 62c | 163.61$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 39c | 160.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…4202backed Yes | 26c | 154.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 80c | 153.44$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e59…f95dbacked Yes | 66c | 151.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa288…f80fbacked Yes | 44c | 141.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 31c | 140$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 18c | 136$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 66c | 128.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 61c | 123.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 11c | 121.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 67c | 116.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da2…ef4abacked No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 28c | 106.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 33c | 100.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca4…c467backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676f…c546backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…9999backed No | 25c | 97.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…a7b0backed No | 28c | 97.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…4aa9backed Yes | 64c | 96.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked Yes | 70c | 85.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 23c | 73.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a57…1791backed Yes | 68c | 67.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 19c | 67.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 64c | 66.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 18c | 60.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 52cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed Yes | 70c | 50.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.