TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$98,531
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,531 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes68c7,543$5,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.64875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3afe…01d4backed No3c7,235$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.5560%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf72c…f818backed Yes66c3,297$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.221127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No11c3,271$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.72128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5073…16a7backed Yes64c2,830$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.283246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No18c2,791$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8234354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed No13c2,575$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eed…cb2abacked No31c2,462$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.3540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1229…df38backed Yes72c2,410$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.51421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes64c2,254$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.283444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb70…f963backed Yes65c2,019$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No28c1,687$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.723823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No8c1,628$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.03128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes80c1,409$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.1988448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No40c1,396$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.1952850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No45c1,161$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.3239952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No35c1,125$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.6510646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No40c1,086$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.579254.3%50 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe298…784ebacked Yes78c1,051$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371e…0df7backed Yes65c1,000$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked No47c934.92$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No14c891.62$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6746330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb9d…d78ebacked No3c879.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.85328.3%15 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x808a…ef3fbacked No2c836$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No17c771.74$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9214637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No2c701.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.832958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe32b…626ebacked No30c679.78$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.351233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No13c651.59$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4613243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No21c585.8$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5935258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No18c582.58$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.742642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No11c579.35$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.218348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No17c558.82$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3328558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No10c548$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0616051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No29c508.58$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1815558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No31c506$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6731152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d77…af31backed Yes76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e61…5a25backed Yes71c496.7$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.34580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+74.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes67c481$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.931030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd23…cad2backed No2c439.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No13c435.83$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6122355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdad7…005abacked Yes59c430$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.48425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4692…242cbacked Yes38c430$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.91546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+49.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7f2…3501backed Yes76c429.98$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No17c429.42$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.652755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No51c410.46$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.426355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No53c402.36$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.568643%37 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No13c376$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0410734.6%37 W · 70 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f88…1d4dbacked Yes60c323.12$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.831428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No5c311.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.859035.6%32 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No21c295.82$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.123551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed No25c294.44$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.842630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cba…d6e1backed Yes34c292.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+192.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No24c271.05$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6210542.9%45 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ce7…56d3backed Yes27c265.27$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+65.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…44c8backed No18c263.14$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No48c257.69$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3299017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No45c250.85$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9824637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed No9c241$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.692536%9 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac8f…700dbacked Yes30c222.62$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+139.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5485…ae4abacked Yes23c206.2$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+103.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba9b…6ad9backed No19c196$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72bb…e85ebacked Yes35c195$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab3c…4b3cbacked No18c179$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.111030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7d5…0789backed Yes78c164.77$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-57.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a9…e4fdbacked Yes62c163.61$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No39c160.58$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1844921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ab…4202backed Yes26c154.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes80c153.44$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.694926.5%13 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-43.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e59…f95dbacked Yes66c151.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa288…f80fbacked Yes44c141.43$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.591546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+44.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No31c140$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6537117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No18c136$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1414225.4%36 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes66c128.25$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6117330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed Yes61c123.62$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.213537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f5…5ac4backed No11c121.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No67c116.48$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6612249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0da2…ef4abacked No18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No28c106.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.210344.7%46 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No67c105$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3518762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No33c100.03$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0127438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4ca4…c467backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-77.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x676f…c546backed No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+55.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5004…9999backed No25c97.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a3…a7b0backed No28c97.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x584f…4aa9backed Yes64c96.77$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No18c90$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.220065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f16…063dbacked Yes70c85.85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No17c75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.755952.5%31 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes23c73.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6124110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a57…1791backed Yes68c67.94$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.893100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No19c67.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.575512.7%7 W · 48 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No64c66.36$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2311045.5%50 W · 60 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No31c64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.792454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No18c60.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No36c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.63562.9%22 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.281181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick52cpaid+49.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x46cc…3097backed No20c52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82cd…d7d8backed Yes70c50.39$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.121020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.