Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 4 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c32ebd4704c4efb40d3ffe123b071debbfdaec4ebb3bc8d628c09633286130f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 69c | 1,499$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.99 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 495.11$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.98 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03b…32dabacked No | 74c | 414.91$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 24c | 403.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…b9f4backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed Yes | 26c | 360.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 344.91$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 277.51$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 210$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 15c | 186.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 27c | 185$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 182.79$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 180.93$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 39c | 174$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 39c | 155$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 151.77$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 7c | 147.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 140$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 31c | 136.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 39c | 128$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 126$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c2…412cbacked No | 72c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 28c | 105.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 36c | 63.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb64…ec3abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 28c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 39c | 43.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 38c | 40.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 29c | 35.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 71c | 33.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 32.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 4 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?this page
- Will 1 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?No won
- Will 2 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?No won
- Will 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.