Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a7df5d198e78b82e203ed9218a2039e9232626ae7a0582ea73c67e4bedd05af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 12,506$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 37c | 7,082$2,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,493.73 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 67c | 6,415$4,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,267.17 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed No | 38c | 6,239$2,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,389.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 47c | 5,840$2,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,751.45 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…7c0bbacked Yes | 35c | 4,043$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,628.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 33c | 2,933$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Yes | 50c | 2,561$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 27c | 2,041$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.8 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…b44fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,920$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…1774backed Yes | 58c | 1,706$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +255.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,572$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.39 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…61dcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,518$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…309dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,493$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed No | 52c | 1,466$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08d7backed Yes | 69c | 1,459$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,453$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.55 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f44…fa88backed No | 37c | 1,422$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 1,237$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.41 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,197$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 21c | 1,134$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.59 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 48c | 1,096$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 61c | 1,080$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 68c | 842.17$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.09 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 10c | 820$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +240.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 31c | 794.25$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.52 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 27c | 789$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.88 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed No | 75c | 786.22$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.92 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.5wins | -0.41per pick | 50cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 44c | 780.49$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…1446backed No | 17c | 750.4$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 33c | 750$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.43 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 712$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.15 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 37c | 697.8$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…3600backed Yes | 8c | 624.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 49c | 624.84$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.99 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 13c | 610.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3320…c9e7backed Yes | 54c | 605.05$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 602.84$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.85 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…f4f2backed Yes | 25c | 600.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +662.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 7c | 573.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.29 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 33c | 554.9$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.03 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 20c | 531.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 27c | 510$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…c1f9backed No | 23c | 482.39$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 72c | 454.62$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…17d4backed Yes | 47c | 452.24$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 13c | 449.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 59c | 432.5$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.49 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 56c | 407.28$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.24 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 398.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 62c | 389.79$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.79 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked Yes | 54c | 372.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 62c | 331.47$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.81 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked No | 75c | 326.29$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.27 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Yes | 37c | 310.58$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.83 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 76c | 304.62$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…681abacked Yes | 71c | 295.04$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 35c | 293.94$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.06 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 46c | 280$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 20c | 275$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.38 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.42per pick | 44cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 7c | 270.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 267.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 60c | 262$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.16 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 77c | 255.91$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 250.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 72c | 244.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.37 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 238.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf404…291ebacked Yes | 19c | 232$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 77c | 220.34$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 25c | 215.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.17 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 64c | 205.01$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 35c | 204.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe6…2769backed Yes | 62c | 200.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 75c | 200.81$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 70c | 194.49$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 174.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 80c | 168.75$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 160.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb77d…28bcbacked Yes | 29c | 155.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9b…77b6backed Yes | 29c | 153.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +243.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 51c | 153$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0498…7067backed Yes | 29c | 150.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +243.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0975…522bbacked Yes | 67c | 148.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 25c | 147.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 145.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…59c6backed Yes | 53c | 139.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +209.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 75c | 139.19$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…aa53backed Yes | 73c | 136.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f4…35e1backed Yes | 35c | 128$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 123.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 34c | 122.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked No | 49c | 121.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 21c | 119.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 113.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 74c | 105.31$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 54c | 96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?this page
- Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No won
- Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No won
- Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No won
- Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.