Commodities · resolved market
Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37305d414c6c0f25296e1436282ff1c63f0cdfaef024efa83254766c32a526dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 29c | 2,694$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.26 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 71c | 2,662$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.82 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…acffbacked Yes | 25c | 2,040$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,846$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.01 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed Yes | 20c | 1,838$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.91 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…31adbacked Yes | 24c | 1,638$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 1,504$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.06 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 34c | 1,483$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.61 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 1,300$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.76 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 17c | 1,282$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.39 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 1,233$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.61 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 23c | 1,068$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.8 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 1,007$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.58 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…309dbacked Yes | 43c | 996.69$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 76c | 849.99$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 688.95$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.85 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes | 29c | 679.25$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.8 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 16c | 673.79$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…17d4backed Yes | 40c | 541.88$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 71c | 479.78$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.71 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 34c | 436.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 433.33$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…05e4backed Yes | 9c | 403$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 399.98$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 30c | 372.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 364.85$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 17c | 350.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 14c | 346.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Yes | 30c | 328$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed Yes | 31c | 314.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 56c | 287.66$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.01 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…aa53backed Yes | 25c | 280.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 33c | 280$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 18c | 278.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 17c | 274.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…ab58backed Yes | 30c | 261$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…d3fdbacked Yes | 29c | 257.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 256.57$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x207d…470abacked Yes | 29c | 249$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 63c | 242.93$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 225.43$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Yes | 21c | 223.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 7c | 222.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 11c | 213.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 31c | 205.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 68c | 200.01$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 195.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6585…0149backed Yes | 30c | 188.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 60c | 181.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 181.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 179.46$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 184 | 40.2%74 W · 110 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 172$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 169$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.5wins | -0.41per pick | 50cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 145.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 64c | 139$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 75c | 136.58$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…1870backed Yes | 35c | 134.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…775fbacked Yes | 30c | 132$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 27c | 122.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 16c | 115.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 13c | 112.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 65c | 105.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 29c | 105.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 22c | 105.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +240.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Yes | 30c | 103$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e53…22edbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.42per pick | 44cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Yes | 28c | 95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 70c | 79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 18c | 76.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 15c | 75.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 29c | 66.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 34c | 66.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b6…4451backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 21c | 59.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 52.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 70c | 52.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 20c | 51.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 29c | 51.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…fdbabacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 47.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 29c | 44.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 29c | 38.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 28c | 38.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 80c | 37.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?this page
- Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No won
- Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No won
- Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No won
- Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.