Commodities · resolved market
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a1b42c8b539ff4bfed50921f7b7dd8df659f68adbce3b4b89a7da6cb8e8883b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 6c | 8,832$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.72 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 12c | 4,090$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.7 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…31adbacked Yes | 9c | 1,646$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f44…fa88backed Yes | 1c | 1,579$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 17c | 1,500$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 17c | 1,210$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed No | 77c | 950.51$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.51 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 19c | 793.44$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.33 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 756$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 10c | 630.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 18c | 249$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…309dbacked Yes | 29c | 227.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 216.93$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 14c | 188.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed No | 71c | 145$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8141…0b4ebacked No | 75c | 121.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked No | 80c | 113.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 18c | 87.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 20c | 66.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd6…2784backed Yes | 27c | 65.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 25c | 45.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?this page
- Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No won
- Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No won
- Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No won
- Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.