Commodities · resolved market
Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x855e356cc076b8d454598e8efb6c022d7b2bdf2a2cd3cf7625c22015e5785f46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f44…fa88backed Yes | 1c | 2,550$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 9c | 2,077$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.85 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,655$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.21 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…31adbacked Yes | 15c | 1,334$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 17c | 958.73$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.86 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 13c | 899.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…309dbacked Yes | 27c | 656.41$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed Yes | 19c | 635.4$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.5wins | -0.41per pick | 50cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 18c | 626.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 415.8$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 8c | 280$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 215.04$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 5c | 211.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 199.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 7c | 197.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 80c | 168.75$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 167.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 156.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 21c | 139.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 129.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…e406backed Yes | 15c | 111.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 20c | 85.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed Yes | 29c | 44.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 78c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?this page
- Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No won
- Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No won
- Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No won
- Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.