Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc3ba1ba018dd3f5723e02a9878ed7840657d91ea1a81a2a2bda12e56f42e598
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 10c | 45,953$4,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,447.5 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…170cbacked Yes | 5c | 40,100$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8931…a90cbacked Yes | 7c | 11,332$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…8004backed Yes | 10c | 6,000$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…b0d6backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…eeaebacked Yes | 7c | 4,929$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,771$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.39 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed Yes | 7c | 3,707$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 2,882$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.88 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 2,817$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.08 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 2,568$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.56 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…64b7backed Yes | 8c | 2,086$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,891$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,847$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,629$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…2663backed Yes | 5c | 1,562$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,510$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…9002backed Yes | 7c | 1,466$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 5c | 1,464$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 8c | 1,433$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.33 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 10c | 1,382$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +12.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,356$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 7c | 1,353$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 9c | 1,102$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 979.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 8c | 923$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…10a2backed Yes | 5c | 908.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +415.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Yes | 7c | 860.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 7c | 844.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 10c | 828.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 4c | 799.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 71c | 794.28$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.19 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d73…4598backed Yes | 6c | 705.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…43eebacked Yes | 7c | 682.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 32c | 680.6$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.12 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 666.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 553$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 4c | 550$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 6c | 428.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked Yes | 5c | 399.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 6c | 379.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 7c | 378.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…d5a0backed Yes | 11c | 376.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes | 8c | 369$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 114 | 32.5%37 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 11c | 348$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…eedebacked Yes | 8c | 332.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 299.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…47b6backed Yes | 9c | 295.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…d719backed Yes | 8c | 286.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 6c | 269.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 269.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 6c | 263.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d1…3da3backed Yes | 11c | 259.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 6c | 247$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 8c | 208.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5662…9aaabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 192.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 13c | 165.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…4258backed Yes | 9c | 160.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 152.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3a…9935backed Yes | 9c | 129.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…a9fdbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 101.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 33c | 96.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 87.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 73c | 36.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?this page
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?No won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.