TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7010…eede

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 60 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT2055%11 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+57.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+216.2%+$26.46
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.52
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+380.7%+$54.85
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+59.7%+$11.93
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+244.1%+$88.83
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$16.09
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.54
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.76
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+61.8%+$9.27
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+141.8%+$73.84
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.29
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.36
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+315.6%+$44.21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+133.4%+$53.93
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+76.9%+$34.59
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+297.9%+$166.07
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.48
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.07
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.71
All 20 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+128.3%+$67.86
Will Lucy Powell be the next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+71.8%+$9.96
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+113.7%+$18.5
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.57
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+146%+$69.65
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$30.03
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.79
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$39.07
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.1
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.72
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.8
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.38
Spread: France (-2.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.7
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.48
All 3 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.31
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.