World Politics · resolved market
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b67cfd5941ec9a30458fefe51a7f0353b27aaf310ed67c662fdb1772bb3a919
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 74c | 6,706$4,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.31 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 45cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…e8f6backed Yes | 1c | 5,548$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,495.73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +922.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 5,326$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.3 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 66c | 3,397$2,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.72 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…bbcebacked No | 3c | 3,291$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…4b92backed Yes | 1c | 2,462$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,438.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +635.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 2,396$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.35 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…a817backed No | 15c | 2,250$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,249$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.86 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda37…1d00backed Yes | 18c | 2,213$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,812.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked No | 15c | 2,056$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 77c | 1,844$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.34 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,719$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…dedabacked Yes | 1c | 1,547$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.69 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +188.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…6305backed No | 26c | 1,419$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 1c | 1,324$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.03 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 1,306$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.19 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 18c | 1,165$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.77 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 949.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.13 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 31c | 801.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.18 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 23c | 740.51$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.21 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 4c | 645.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.36 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 549.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.2 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 42c | 534$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.64 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +8.9wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…0432backed Yes | 28c | 519.03$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked Yes | 26c | 500.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.98 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 44c | 490.53$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.83 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 27c | 450.02$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 42c | 416.66$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.21 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…963bbacked No | 19c | 314.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 37c | 297.76$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 46c | 292.74$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 278.51$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.06 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 269.69$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.25 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 239.61$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 219.29$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 206.44$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.85 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…64bfbacked Yes | 49c | 204.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…f868backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 47c | 157.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +7.0wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 55c | 153.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 53c | 150.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 32c | 148.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 136.02$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.86 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…daeabacked Yes | 32c | 118.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +208.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 65c | 105.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…9408backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 32c | 72.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…3f5fbacked Yes | 35c | 71.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 65c | 66.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 62.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 34c | 60.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 47.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 75c | 42.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…4258backed Yes | 51c | 39.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 50c | 38.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…eedebacked Yes | 47c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…c497backed No | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7215…7f88backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 27.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 67c | 23.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…1e17backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…d8c6backed No | 78c | 17.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?this page
- Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Louise Haigh be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Miatta Fahnbulleh be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.