TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$391,487
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$345,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,487 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 246 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf6d2…7048backed No13c19,746$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,275.62020%4 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+93.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c14,150$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.15892.2%2 W · 87 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2598…40a3backed No78c13,866$10,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,988.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+153.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf097…f868backed Yes2c10,238$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.54714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes49c10,066$4,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,895.415244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No72c9,821$7,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,746.1710646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked No14c9,093$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,846.013100%3 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+364.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes5c7,681$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3485149%25 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+168.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d41…6acabacked Yes50c7,675$3,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8481225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes8c5,824$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.2626139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No60c5,785$3,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,298.823551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No39c5,049$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,105.358641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b5a…2e45backed Yes29c4,834$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.582240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x010d…d0e6backed Yes65c4,496$2,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,933.01425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes7c4,104$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0511435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes5c4,075$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.7115932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No12c3,896$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,424.285117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes80c3,820$3,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,055.896533.8%22 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed No57c3,697$2,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.481353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes39c3,638$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,426.6617330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9826…e7febacked Yes27c3,395$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.811723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes55c3,343$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,836.192030%6 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc26…4b92backed Yes13c3,306$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.021526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+635.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54ab…e8f6backed Yes53c3,283$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.321323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+922.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5979…bbcebacked Yes5c3,254$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed Yes43c3,221$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.798451.2%43 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No67c3,067$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.1952850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No42c3,062$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,788.4428558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c3,028$2,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.134354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cc…62b1backed Yes10c3,025$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.921225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes80c2,535$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.243551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No43c2,483$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.832133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No18c2,473$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.4222355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No18c2,460$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,023.974334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e3d…8554backed Yes71c2,237$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.94757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48b7…f103backed Yes39c2,233$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.641127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-59.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed No10c2,195$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,971.033633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9182…3368backed Yes7c2,145$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.94623.9%11 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4ed…9a97backed No10c2,102$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,891.51030%3 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+55%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes78c2,043$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.862157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No41c2,029$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2011947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c44…fcd4backed Yes22c2,023$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.391533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes60c2,000$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.753444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes6c2,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.777123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No47c1,959$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.5119742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…da5bbacked Yes5c1,946$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes11c1,939$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.983243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes11c1,868$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.2431635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2107…8a8abacked Yes14c1,731$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1e…6305backed Yes27c1,669$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993b…dedabacked No74c1,598$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.073756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+188.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes76c1,595$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.514045%18 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd403…a817backed Yes16c1,556$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd6…963bbacked Yes11c1,529$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes47c1,510$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.2410734.6%37 W · 70 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed Yes60c1,426$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.231421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No64c1,374$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.6616051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No16c1,337$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.183917.9%7 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes25c1,316$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3331435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c1,290$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.8836055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes4c1,289$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.423740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No50c1,241$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.134548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed Yes46c1,174$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.358657%49 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes8c1,081$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7913225%33 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6aa…178ebacked No17c1,012$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.03757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+80.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8b6…7fc8backed Yes4c1,008$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.74922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-68.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No51c1,000$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.7715355.6%85 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d4…9002backed Yes23c999.99$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.62911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-66.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes33c945.98$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.852733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes8c938.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.014721.3%10 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9032…b5c3backed Yes5c917.55$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.492846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e4…743ebacked No13c909.89$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+658.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb5d…0487backed Yes14c901.08$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.77333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6041…0432backed Yes57c899.73$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.961136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes48c877.94$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.1924637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes67c873.74$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.515534.5%19 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c868.52$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5231152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c9…1c13backed Yes45c829.9$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.9520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes13c828.84$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.614630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes11c820$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.561915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-60.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes69c804.91$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.6188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c754.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.612543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No80c751$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.2111230.4%34 W · 78 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef7…85ecbacked No78c692.33$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.611020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x425b…b6c4backed No50c619.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.25425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No78c609.53$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.5618628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50d3…bad4backed No13c600$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.61136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked No67c599.99$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1965942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…79fbbacked Yes9c569.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No58c557.75$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.8815056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No64c537$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.439952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes27c518.57$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2810844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No15c500$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.6313343.6%58 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefc…9408backed Yes8c500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4150%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed No78c499.99$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes27c496.17$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.381118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-59.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes23c494$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.76150%0 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed Yes37c479.76$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.751747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes6c465.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.85267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3d…684dbacked Yes16c448.4$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.611637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.