Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf514c3c4b88f8622df4d74b3d8c67518da94d6c7114c9519cd9a7069281fc16d

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $126,048
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $89,624

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,048 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	13,800$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.1	89	2.2%2 W · 87 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5efb…8392backed Yes	25c	9,917$2,473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,473.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	8,873$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.68	169	1.8%3 W · 166 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	5,100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	444	0.7%3 W · 441 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c44…fcd4backed Yes	9c	3,981$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.42	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2e…1e57backed Yes	1c	3,461$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes	5c	3,090$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.15	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9826…e7febacked Yes	8c	2,560$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.32	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9182…3368backed Yes	2c	2,440$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes	4c	2,432$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.35	261	39.8%104 W · 157 L	+16.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	2,114$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.53	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc26…4b92backed Yes	14c	1,623$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.77	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	17cpaid	+635.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	5c	1,623$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.82	173	30.1%52 W · 121 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2956…d31bbacked Yes	7c	1,612$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.48	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No	69c	1,469$1,021 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.19	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993b…dedabacked Yes	2c	1,444$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.4	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+3.6wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+188.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	2c	1,290$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.74	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-72.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes	8c	1,151$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.36	68	35.3%24 W · 44 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes	6c	1,123$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.49	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48b7…f103backed Yes	14c	1,100$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.4	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.16per pick	43cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes	7c	1,020$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.39	86	41.9%36 W · 50 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-23%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes	4c	1,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	159	32.7%52 W · 107 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	+102.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes	15c	860.37$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.89	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-2.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes	6c	848.93$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.21	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	+8.1wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes	7c	848.03$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.24	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes	12c	847$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.54	85	55.3%47 W · 38 L	+6.6wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	8c	813.83$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.94	114	35.1%40 W · 74 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes	1c	804.01$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	120	29.2%35 W · 85 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb5…8ab9backed Yes	14c	780.24$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.9	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+2.7wins	+0.23per pick	36cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	14c	714.25$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.58	463	30.2%140 W · 323 L	-20.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes	2c	699.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd15d…7832backed Yes	5c	589.97$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ab…e8f6backed Yes	2c	550.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+922.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	133	43.6%58 W · 75 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes	5c	459.89$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.95	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	+3.5wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	10c	429.21$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.1	132	25%33 W · 99 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes	12c	406$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.77	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes	10c	402.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	70	27.1%19 W · 51 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	10c	396.59$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.43	241	10.8%26 W · 215 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-34%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d4…9002backed Yes	28c	390.78$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.23per pick	34cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	12c	376.53$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.66	316	35.1%111 W · 205 L	-11.1wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes	13c	375.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes	3c	345.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f96…a226backed Yes	6c	301.71$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.56	80	51.3%41 W · 39 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Yes	13c	301.08$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.69	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf44a…cc0bbacked Yes	17c	258$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.86	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes	10c	254.56$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.26	86	43%37 W · 49 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes	10c	233.34$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Yes	14c	200$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes	7c	199.94$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	12c	176.02$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.67	246	37.4%92 W · 154 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes	14c	176$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	146	37%54 W · 92 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	7c	170.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.78	107	34.6%37 W · 70 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes	14c	162$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.52	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-3.1wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed Yes	13c	153$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1924…dff3backed Yes	13c	152.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.79	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes	9c	147$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	69	44.9%31 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb69a…d029backed Yes	23c	120$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.36	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ee…0662backed Yes	14c	120$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-2.6wins	-0.15per pick	31cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes	14c	114.75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.29	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8533…7c76backed Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes	12c	99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes	15c	82.23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.21per pick	39cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes	17c	80$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	271	43.5%118 W · 153 L	-21.4wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No	61c	80$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.04	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+8.0wins	+0.20per pick	33cpaid	+105%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Yes	16c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	16c	68.7$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	274	38.3%105 W · 169 L	-32.3wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes	28c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	-6.0wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No	77c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.87	150	76%114 W · 36 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	74cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed No	66c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.45	86	57%49 W · 37 L	+6.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc209…3de3backed No	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.02	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?this page
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Yes won
Will Louise Haigh be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
Will Miatta Fahnbulleh be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won
Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event