TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,395
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,100

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,395 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2956…d31bbacked Yes0c7,934$31 inLost-$30.542934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc26…4b92backed Yes5c5,050$244 inLost-$244.391526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+635.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes1c3,217$44 inLost-$43.6811435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes1c2,468$18 inLost-$17.684334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd28d…1fb7backed Yes3c1,760$51 inLost-$50.971421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-57.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes1c1,472$16 inLost-$16.1815932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea39…9cb9backed Yes1c1,183$13 inLost-$13.43425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes6c1,148$72 inLost-$71.883243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb749…2a64backed Yes3c1,127$35 inLost-$34.94911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-84%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,108$10 inLost-$10.021,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes1c904.19$12 inLost-$12.34267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes4c776.5$29 inLost-$291691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d4…9002backed Yes7c768.02$50 inLost-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-66.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes8c721.6$61 inLost-$60.626434.4%22 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes4c458.99$16 inLost-$16.461915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-60.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ea1…c38ebacked Yes4c416.11$15 inLost-$14.562524%6 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-59.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46b1…428cbacked Yes4c316.07$11 inLost-$11.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes7c169.63$12 inLost-$12.4631635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes22c115.85$25 inLost-$25.1499017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes14c93.99$13 inLost-$13.371,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeced…c598backed No60c58.25$35 inWon+$23.31580%12 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes28c42$12 inLost-$11.681118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-69.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.