TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$368,422
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$318,202

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,422 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 532 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c15,650$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5892.2%2 W · 87 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No66c13,354$8,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,524.8719742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d41…6acabacked Yes54c12,679$6,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,891.251225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes5c10,608$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.012030%6 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cfb…a28cbacked Yes6c8,948$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.52633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No57c7,892$4,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,360.3310646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes54c7,135$3,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,870.125740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5efb…8392backed Yes51c6,962$3,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,540.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes17c6,796$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.9415932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfacd…9109backed Yes56c5,809$3,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,270.052433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes11c4,850$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.112133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9182…3368backed Yes16c4,642$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.454623.9%11 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5449…5fd5backed Yes18c4,589$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes1c4,062$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.772416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Yes33c3,716$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.01757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick29cpaid+140.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No43c3,490$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.974334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c3,373$2,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.4334354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No72c3,257$2,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.6510151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes26c3,162$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.948641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c3,131$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.541691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,124$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.821,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9826…e7febacked Yes19c3,070$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.571723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c44…fcd4backed No61c2,931$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.111533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Yes39c2,745$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.492544%11 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes52c2,521$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.8814637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No71c2,343$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.2213343.6%58 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes32c2,310$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.913918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1327…ac1cbacked No41c2,129$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No49c1,994$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.074548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No78c1,956$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.772133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54ab…e8f6backed Yes14c1,921$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.351323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+922.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes31c1,905$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.7826139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda37…1d00backed Yes6c1,774$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+133.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf3…f2fabacked Yes33c1,689$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes11c1,650$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.45149%25 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+168.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3150…3be9backed No47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No39c1,463$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.8811349.6%56 W · 57 L+28.4wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+106.5%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes39c1,450$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.763740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No75c1,438$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.1728558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb5d…0487backed No43c1,402$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.62333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes19c1,340$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6812029.2%35 W · 85 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3387…c3f7backed No67c1,324$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.17862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No69c1,324$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.8236055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a22…17a6backed Yes35c1,280$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4505446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed No55c1,264$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.624348.8%21 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No41c1,244$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73111435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes27c1,233$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3331435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes45c1,200$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5405633.9%19 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c65…d60dbacked No79c1,200$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes28c1,184$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.287027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe43d…f095backed No31c1,153$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.56742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c9…1c13backed No55c1,147$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.67520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-63.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes7c1,137$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.684721.3%10 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes59c1,112$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.2554934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c1,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.94440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed Yes54c1,086$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.311145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes17c1,067$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.997436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ff…c05fbacked Yes26c1,004$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed No55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x202d…c3b1backed Yes50c972.59$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed Yes36c966.26$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.078451.2%43 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe214…cdb6backed Yes4c953.61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48b7…f103backed Yes23c952.95$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.911127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-59.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No79c949.96$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.492240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eae…5e6dbacked No78c907.63$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.06425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-68.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes43c871.14$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.710844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf097…f868backed Yes20c868.03$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.61714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb35e…7cc4backed No55c865.88$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9f…a025backed Yes4c862.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.791457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+55.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes32c822$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.664753.2%25 W · 22 L+8.9wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+50.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No51c819.58$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.595036%18 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked No42c817$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.686741.8%28 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No41c800.02$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.3418628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb1…acc2backed Yes24c800$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked No44c786.29$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.821861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x825c…dfa0backed Yes5c751.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.711442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+159.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes18c729.38$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.826434.4%22 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7789…ac9bbacked Yes45c718$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.92560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No50c714.55$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.6415558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes35c710.55$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4617330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…4657backed Yes27c696.55$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.7728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes39c674.23$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2647833.3%26 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes30c629.93$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.583444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5896…49aebacked No64c622.26$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked No44c621.98$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.683243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa821…0bc8backed No50c600$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3021060%6 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1a0…1495backed Yes11c596.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c67…8748backed No39c583.8$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7803…9e91backed Yes54c578$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.71566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes21c560.48$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.077123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked No45c546.33$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.481118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-59.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x010d…d0e6backed Yes44c525.16$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.48425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed Yes27c523.12$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.551421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c15…5b4bbacked No47c502.82$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes4c500.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.55283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43e4…9de8backed Yes65c500$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes16c499.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes31c491.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503336.4%12 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-47.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed No52c483.21$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.933369.7%23 W · 10 L+6.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+92%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.