TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3eae…5e6d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
114
Categories scored
28
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: Earnings, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Earnings at 55 out of 100; worst Tennis at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT2850%14 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+317.4%+$684.37
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,363Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+71.9%+$979.47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$752Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+46.3%+$347.99
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.17
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.56
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$335Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$118.79
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,131Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+45.6%+$970.85
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?backed Ceasefire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$143.78
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$235
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$718Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$1,393.26
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,130Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,130
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$166
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.55
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.05
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.01
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$104
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$65.15
Will Iran strike Jordan in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+26%+$37.29
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.18
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.96
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+54.2%+$15.28
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+145.9%+$231.97
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+28.3%+$75.74
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Powell Bingo: Marchbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.51
Will Powell say "Signal" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+46.2%+$137.46
Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+26.8%+$19.85
Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+62.9%+$77.85
Will Powell say "Collect" or "Collected" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+82.5%+$9.56
Will Powell say "Delayed" or "Delay" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+97.8%+$49.93
Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+173.2%+$135.67
Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.7
Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.45
Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$11.6
Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$70.29
Will Powell say "Food" or "Energy" 3+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.13
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.65
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$372Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$112.3
All 14 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Earnings — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-69.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-58.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-68.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+112.8%+$397.5
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+96.1%+$245
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+156.4%+$94.55
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+69.5%+$41
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.5
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. Chinese Taipeibacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+222.6%+$48.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+204.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$569Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+204.9%+$1,166.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+126.3%+$80.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: HMBLE vs Colossal Gaming (BO5) - LIT Playoffsbacked Colossal Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$16.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.