TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,027,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,002,150

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,027,167 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3744…d422backed No0c900,161$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.6530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd55f…0f76backed No0c536,200$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb08…e1e7backed No0c359,447$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fe…8488backed No0c143,057$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe351…d39abacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0c…d930backed No0c99,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbaa…9d51backed No0c47,120$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a3…121fbacked No0c44,454$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8966…5d80backed No0c41,067$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae31…7fa1backed No0c40,091$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.26633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+133.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed No1c39,903$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.73128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-71.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ace…ef05backed No0c38,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b2…5a0bbacked No0c38,333$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf48…6f13backed No0c36,790$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5604…f26bbacked No2c27,939$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c0…4314backed No0c23,341$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b95…af88backed No0c20,083$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf6…a89fbacked No0c15,488$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x647e…2f6cbacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6f…d047backed No0c14,870$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d5…81f6backed No0c14,690$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06f…6571backed No0c13,430$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1806…5234backed No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No1c11,874$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.92119%4 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-64.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c53…8c30backed No0c11,750$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-60.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd29d…cbbcbacked No0c11,400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe005…9e23backed No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe03d…589cbacked No0c10,200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf057…a931backed No0c9,857$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x268d…4820backed No1c9,779$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3c…e276backed No1c9,109$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8323…6bb8backed No0c8,346$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.231241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8de4…427cbacked No0c7,827$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e47…08bcbacked No0c6,912$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4b3…c131backed No15c5,580$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe485…f7eebacked No14c5,336$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8af6…b244backed No0c5,173$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc86b…1d8ebacked No9c4,952$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f65…7a77backed No1c4,064$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3104…7048backed No0c4,050$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc603…c240backed No0c3,980$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x233a…00ddbacked No2c3,490$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf35…8f06backed No1c3,020$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No1c3,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe98e…a597backed Yes26c2,638$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+194.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67a9…b599backed No1c2,616$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e27…ef09backed No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23ed…aebcbacked No1c2,294$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3148…bc30backed Yes12c1,313$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+742.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes61c863.75$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.451118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-70.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dd…5514backed Yes17c817$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.112100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+271%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes10c810$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.912927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x549c…ad91backed No49c806.63$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.52520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes17c790$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+257.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc653…33ecbacked No2c773.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefc0…4942backed Yes17c772$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca41…3af9backed Yes16c671.77$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.592433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No52c646.39$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.83060%18 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed No58c611.08$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.168224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5092…86c3backed Yes44c603.65$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+81.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked No65c571$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.694953.1%26 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No57c560.94$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+83.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbadb…e02bbacked No62c532.15$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed No32c525.29$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.391040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+113%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fc…42a0backed No3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938e…d242backed No68c477.15$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.48862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes46c467.75$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.09757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick31cpaid+222.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No37c399.97$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.021127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x382a…b590backed Yes30c399.09$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.79837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18b0…3ef4backed No39c331.7$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes23c301.56$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.1211322.1%25 W · 88 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No57c276.58$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.83560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked No35c269.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.81330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No27c268.45$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.882321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes19c267.9$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.53633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c260.54$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.865327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes60c254.58$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-58.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked No20c250$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+163.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No38c237$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.068510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x270d…d850backed Yes43c231.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+131.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No51c227.58$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.276341.3%26 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes70c211.43$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8312937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No61c208.85$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.162128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6c8c…47c0backed Yes10c200$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180475%3 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.59per pick16cpaid+457.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No60c192.76$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.46547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f03…d3eebacked Yes35c172.31$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc972…dcd9backed Yes48c149.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9521…9e2bbacked Yes48c146.36$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.461127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-56.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2214…2fe9backed Yes53c142.27$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked No36c138.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes22c130.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5317232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c119.64$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.874346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No48c118.69$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.091030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-46.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed Yes43c116.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.743100%3 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+407.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No68c115.47$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.441553.3%8 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick68cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d26…f91dbacked No73c113.76$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes28c112.5$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.984544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes18c111.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.113834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.