Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6813d99ee682de526bbadddf904638d20616455321eaae1ca60c49da82edfffd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 586.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf79…decebacked Yes | 39c | 514.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 501.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 50c | 500$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…9b6cbacked No | 42c | 472.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.68 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 58c | 422.98$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.24 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 44c | 374.95$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.21 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 60c | 284.5$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…ef7abacked No | 40c | 250.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed No | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 182.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3905…eee1backed Yes | 59c | 170.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…1d82backed Yes | 32c | 156.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…ce2cbacked Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 65c | 141.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 132.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 128.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3d…162abacked Yes | 59c | 126.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 16c | 116.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 107$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2932…5a17backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 42c | 96.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1844…618cbacked No | 44c | 92.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0d…2e7fbacked No | 50c | 85.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…ac3fbacked Yes | 60c | 83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4736…e8b6backed Yes | 61c | 79.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23c…fa0dbacked Yes | 66c | 75.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…4486backed Yes | 55c | 74.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 46c | 69.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 50c | 65.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…c2f0backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 67c | 58.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088c…1590backed Yes | 18c | 54.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7e…c364backed No | 39c | 51.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…e8c6backed No | 60c | 50.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b6…24c9backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 39c | 45.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…ad8dbacked Yes | 34c | 44.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e4…7d60backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314f…e267backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 59c | 39.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked No | 36c | 37.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 79c | 34.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 66c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…19c9backed Yes | 57c | 31.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb222…2e28backed No | 73c | 28.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbf…3faebacked Yes | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…e6c0backed No | 70c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 31, 2026?this page
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by February 28, 2026?No won
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 17, 2026?No won
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 24, 2026?No won
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.