Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb53c60a91118cd245f21a1ff2c2fced54754066017f7930ead6fa3ddca9f8f3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,219$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked Yes | 42c | 565.51$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 451.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 34c | 362.08$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.61 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 18c | 324$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 21c | 273.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 37c | 258.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 61c | 205.37$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 62c | 199.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 36c | 183.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbf…723cbacked No | 77c | 157.97$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +84%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…dfc7backed Yes | 32c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 57c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…e0ebbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0d…2e7fbacked No | 79c | 96.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 81.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…6570backed No | 67c | 60.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +89%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…3a78backed No | 79c | 44.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 78c | 43.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb264…9b09backed No | 65c | 30.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1844…618cbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb7…1429backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 17, 2026?this page
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by February 28, 2026?No won
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 24, 2026?No won
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 31, 2026?No won
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.