Commodities · resolved market
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2358809f9f612f8fb4f224b342ba2841ca644a6e3c46adb4c3bcee910cc31632
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $552,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $534,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $552,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 370 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 0c | 34,700$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 76c | 20,509$15,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,859.8 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 37c | 9,425$3,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,979.5 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 9,127$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 23c | 6,612$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 14c | 6,318$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e9…8f85backed No | 48c | 6,166$2,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,974.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…3600backed No | 11c | 6,083$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 5,805$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.91 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked No | 7c | 5,000$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.99 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 5c | 4,720$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.78 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 72c | 4,620$3,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.84 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 53c | 4,452$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.29 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 25c | 4,289$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.59 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc881…b071backed No | 5c | 4,030$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 1c | 4,021$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 32c | 4,016$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,726.21 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…361ebacked No | 1c | 3,869$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 67c | 3,864$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,595 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 28c | 3,796$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 1c | 3,723$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fb50backed No | 73c | 3,383$2,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,475.87 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 73c | 3,329$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.33 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 3,297$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.32 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 54c | 3,213$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.84 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 3,120$2,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.74 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e8…193fbacked No | 7c | 3,062$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 8c | 3,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 17c | 2,960$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.6 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5167…cb83backed Yes | 30c | 2,957$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 2,927$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.02 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…dba5backed No | 1c | 2,914$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 8c | 2,792$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.36 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…200cbacked No | 28c | 2,675$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 78c | 2,574$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.28 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 7c | 2,462$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.45 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 14c | 2,135$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 7c | 2,100$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 18c | 2,063$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.77 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 27c | 1,966$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.83 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 26c | 1,960$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.4 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…14ddbacked No | 6c | 1,884$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 38c | 1,844$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.26 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…6c6fbacked No | 28c | 1,777$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.15 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 10c | 1,680$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1c…02bbbacked No | 18c | 1,641$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 15c | 1,594$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 1,552$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.8 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 78c | 1,550$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 35c | 1,483$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.19 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…b0f8backed No | 51c | 1,451$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 11c | 1,410$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…dc97backed No | 5c | 1,352$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed No | 1c | 1,281$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945f…8125backed No | 8c | 1,270$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 8c | 1,270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e87…fa43backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 66c | 1,214$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.24 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed No | 28c | 1,203$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…92f1backed No | 7c | 1,200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef93…d376backed No | 4c | 1,180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 4c | 1,146$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed No | 4c | 1,092$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 12c | 1,058$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed No | 68c | 1,039$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 7c | 1,030$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…b808backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +321.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…61dcbacked No | 12c | 1,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932a…bd8cbacked No | 22c | 999.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 31c | 981.92$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…9420backed No | 10c | 980$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…5ffdbacked No | 52c | 967.01$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…e307backed No | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 9c | 899.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…201dbacked Yes | 45c | 880.42$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…3497backed No | 2c | 878.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 3c | 803.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 56c | 772.97$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 52c | 712.78$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.82 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 67c | 707.43$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa536…c38cbacked No | 15c | 675.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 32c | 659.16$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.87 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…7fbdbacked Yes | 25c | 647.67$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…482bbacked No | 6c | 642$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…c364backed Yes | 48c | 635.42$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3f…6e55backed No | 8c | 617$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…a3c9backed No | 31c | 609.65$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 25c | 604.92$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed No | 8c | 603.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 28c | 600$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 72c | 595$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.5wins | -0.58per pick | 74cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed No | 16c | 572.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 23c | 567.17$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.48 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…0838backed No | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 73c | 538.95$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.75 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a40…2083backed No | 6c | 530$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 9c | 529.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked Yes | 63c | 529.02$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.86 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.