Commodities · resolved market
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc38b96e6fb12fc68d003ff326f2a11eb3c8f04c2fce7fcfc9d62f5e18131817c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,386,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,501,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,386,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 772 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 87,650$66,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,500.92 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 26c | 45,121$11,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,900.65 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 55c | 41,736$22,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,911.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 11c | 35,780$3,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,788.04 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6be1backed Yes | 48c | 29,305$14,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,129.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 45c | 28,765$13,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,087.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 22c | 28,333$6,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,148.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc381…a661backed No | 72c | 20,801$15,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,786.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 77c | 20,076$15,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,530.16 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 47c | 17,215$8,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,097.95 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 16,700$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 29c | 15,897$4,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,567.69 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…3239backed Yes | 49c | 15,414$7,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,532.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…7c0bbacked No | 60c | 15,304$9,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,094.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 65c | 15,237$9,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,377.94 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed No | 63c | 14,186$8,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,274.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…9942backed No | 73c | 13,263$9,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,644.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…665abacked No | 69c | 13,000$8,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,068.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes | 24c | 12,683$3,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,090.93 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed No | 46c | 12,131$5,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,561.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 44c | 10,126$4,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,492.62 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…002abacked No | 79c | 10,002$7,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,055.66 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 23c | 9,985$2,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.59 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 52c | 9,791$5,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,124.37 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked No | 47c | 9,746$4,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,142.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 33c | 9,389$3,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,067.58 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 53c | 9,224$4,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,369.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 22c | 8,805$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.99 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 40c | 8,695$3,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,479.17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…baecbacked No | 80c | 8,635$6,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 28c | 8,464$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368.22 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 46c | 8,093$3,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,701.87 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 55c | 7,936$4,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,382.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 51c | 7,509$3,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,865.66 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…92d8backed No | 78c | 7,321$5,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 60c | 6,697$4,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,034.26 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,390$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 54c | 6,299$3,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,370.24 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…09f1backed No | 78c | 6,000$4,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 43c | 6,000$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.32 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 20c | 5,955$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.53 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 40c | 5,878$2,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,520.98 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 27c | 5,623$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked No | 63c | 5,574$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,074.09 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 55c | 5,553$3,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,070.9 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed No | 67c | 5,331$3,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,745.37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +250.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 54c | 5,141$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.46 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 1c | 5,082$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 49c | 5,000$2,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 53c | 4,906$2,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 73c | 4,887$3,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.81 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 1c | 4,806$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…517dbacked No | 52c | 4,734$2,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,290.83 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 4,592$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…70e2backed No | 62c | 4,454$2,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 74c | 4,281$3,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed No | 38c | 4,225$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,619.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 21c | 4,221$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.09 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed No | 37c | 4,100$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,575.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…142bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,078$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked No | 47c | 4,000$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.79 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,279.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 78c | 4,000$3,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.93 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 64c | 3,986$2,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f1…3ccdbacked No | 76c | 3,921$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 70c | 3,904$2,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.54 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…eeb2backed Yes | 44c | 3,868$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed No | 78c | 3,843$3,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 42c | 3,711$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.3 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 54c | 3,627$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 22c | 3,500$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 54c | 3,500$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.98 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…2649backed No | 75c | 3,444$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 38c | 3,292$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.81 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…eb14backed Yes | 31c | 3,250$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.76 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…da6ebacked No | 58c | 3,228$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed No | 70c | 3,160$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.39 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 19c | 2,983$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.04 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 22c | 2,981$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.65 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 16c | 2,936$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.23 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 21c | 2,798$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.1 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e4f6backed Yes | 32c | 2,778$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefa…d902backed Yes | 1c | 2,650$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…0bb1backed Yes | 5c | 2,616$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 66c | 2,587$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.95 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 76c | 2,500$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 49c | 2,500$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…2dcdbacked No | 42c | 2,376$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 1c | 2,334$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…309dbacked No | 55c | 2,238$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf932…00a1backed No | 61c | 2,208$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed Yes | 56c | 2,129$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked No | 65c | 2,103$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.05 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 52c | 2,090$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.91 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 28c | 2,078$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe665…7d42backed No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.