Commodities · resolved market
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f21e67bc25fcaa809f3f739e7bfc9d4e1a42e915709d32632d5438c068e1e8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $943,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $958,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $943,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,953 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 18c | 55,640$10,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,293.28 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6000…f302backed No | 80c | 23,160$18,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,675.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 20,786$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.13 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 19,337$3,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,773.56 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 2c | 17,717$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.38 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 12c | 16,884$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.27 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 8c | 15,247$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.19 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…09f1backed Yes | 19c | 13,688$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 10,232$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.58 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 80c | 9,212$7,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 6,530$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.18 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 15c | 5,565$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.43 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 21c | 5,555$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.55 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 9c | 5,513$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…44c9backed Yes | 29c | 5,114$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 2c | 5,029$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 20c | 4,835$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.67 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 0c | 4,821$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 72c | 4,800$3,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Yes | 18c | 4,393$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.74 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed Yes | 11c | 4,087$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 3,735$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.3 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 30c | 3,724$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…39fdbacked Yes | 12c | 3,437$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 11c | 2,903$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.63 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 3c | 2,699$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed No | 79c | 2,655$2,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 2,404$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.14 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed Yes | 15c | 2,195$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…bac6backed Yes | 20c | 2,065$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 6c | 2,015$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.29 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked Yes | 1c | 1,780$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 15c | 1,615$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.68 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…c577backed Yes | 13c | 1,600$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 70c | 1,480$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.06 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 76c | 1,412$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.41 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…a286backed Yes | 11c | 1,386$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 10c | 1,287$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked No | 74c | 1,238$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 11c | 1,138$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 77c | 1,099$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.62 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 73c | 1,097$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.7 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 15c | 1,085$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.26 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 69c | 1,019$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,017$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 1c | 1,016$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…142bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff1…7234backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…eb14backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 29c | 988.8$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.42 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked No | 70c | 979.92$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.92 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 72c | 966.46$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.46 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 2c | 899.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 885.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 11c | 861.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…ca2dbacked Yes | 12c | 849.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 29c | 848.54$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3411…8ca5backed Yes | 27c | 832$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 816.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…0ee9backed No | 78c | 800$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…3b38backed Yes | 26c | 796$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…bc81backed Yes | 19c | 778$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…361ebacked Yes | 8c | 747.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…a29cbacked Yes | 16c | 736$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 8c | 733$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 11c | 707.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 9c | 704.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 76c | 698.99$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.88 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…c364backed Yes | 19c | 683.14$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 68c | 673$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.44 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…482bbacked Yes | 18c | 672$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce22…aa4abacked Yes | 19c | 661$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5069…9bdebacked Yes | 19c | 635$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb003…97e1backed Yes | 9c | 634.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +305.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…a183backed Yes | 20c | 627.46$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.1 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0827…50ffbacked Yes | 25c | 607$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ee…78bdbacked Yes | 22c | 606$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 80c | 603.2$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.4 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 74cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 19c | 590.21$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.61 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 5c | 587.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…6c6fbacked No | 78c | 580.69$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.86 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…5f73backed Yes | 11c | 566.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 22c | 555.5$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfc…8a5abacked Yes | 19c | 554$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 77c | 552.96$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.18 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 8c | 550$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 74c | 542.12$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.12 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2503…9be5backed Yes | 12c | 521.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6549…ee5abacked Yes | 25c | 515$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 11c | 500.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 9c | 497.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…fadfbacked Yes | 27c | 495$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 6c | 485.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.