Commodities · resolved market
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2a1c0c2a5ddd15fb8ba2dea1a808ef32c61108bb1a5911281006e8076b6714b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,296,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,329,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,296,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 5,096 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 74c | 80,665$59,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,160.73 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc381…a661backed No | 8c | 32,512$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 0c | 25,173$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 6c | 20,493$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.29 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked No | 7c | 16,968$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed No | 6c | 16,830$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6be1backed Yes | 50c | 16,000$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 63c | 14,858$9,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,564.13 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 14c | 14,653$2,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074.53 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…81d2backed No | 11c | 11,714$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80f1…3ccdbacked Yes | 78c | 11,642$9,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,582.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 11,332$8,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,565.78 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 46c | 9,600$4,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,434.18 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 7c | 9,239$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 47c | 7,945$3,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,192.66 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 6c | 7,022$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.57 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 12c | 6,954$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.8 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c10…336cbacked No | 9c | 6,348$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fb50backed No | 58c | 6,300$3,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,667.84 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 37c | 5,851$2,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,657.39 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 40c | 5,665$2,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,252 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 25c | 5,524$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 50c | 5,474$2,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,735.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed No | 8c | 5,310$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 11c | 5,258$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.17 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…ba2fbacked No | 1c | 5,090$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 45c | 5,000$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,767.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 69c | 4,367$3,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.86 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…2649backed No | 65c | 4,216$2,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,752.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked Yes | 47c | 4,120$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…517dbacked No | 24c | 4,117$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 54c | 4,012$2,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…2b85backed No | 6c | 3,680$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed No | 7c | 3,662$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49e9…8f85backed No | 30c | 3,542$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed No | 7c | 3,500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 34c | 3,423$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 7c | 3,302$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.01 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…eeb2backed Yes | 62c | 3,294$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 14c | 3,100$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.79 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked No | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 14c | 2,891$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,490.49 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 47c | 2,886$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…200cbacked No | 73c | 2,871$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100.81 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 2,852$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.26 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked No | 17c | 2,827$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 24c | 2,815$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked No | 43c | 2,759$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 55c | 2,678$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…3600backed No | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 13c | 2,296$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…c697backed No | 48c | 2,249$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e8…193fbacked No | 41c | 2,246$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 49c | 2,158$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 44c | 2,112$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.71 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…a201backed No | 32c | 2,050$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked No | 8c | 2,022$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.3 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c6…0054backed No | 55c | 2,008$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 69c | 2,000$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 37c | 2,000$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…da6ebacked No | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed Yes | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…665abacked No | 9c | 2,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 1,948$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.65 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34aa…ab6bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,869$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 6c | 1,857$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 46c | 1,850$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.23 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…92f1backed Yes | 60c | 1,802$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed No | 17c | 1,763$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 44c | 1,750$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.41 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed Yes | 48c | 1,726$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.11 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed No | 42c | 1,723$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 6c | 1,708$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9be3…d0b8backed No | 9c | 1,638$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…6c6fbacked No | 59c | 1,600$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.64 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…eb14backed Yes | 50c | 1,586$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 12c | 1,570$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 53c | 1,539$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.79 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed Yes | 77c | 1,522$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.07 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.99 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…08fdbacked Yes | 69c | 1,481$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 46c | 1,445$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.02 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…55b0backed Yes | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 16c | 1,417$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.08 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…b0f8backed No | 49c | 1,405$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…adc8backed No | 7c | 1,400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…5b73backed No | 50c | 1,373$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 58c | 1,370$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 1,365$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.59 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 50c | 1,364$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.97 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x479d…d469backed Yes | 62c | 1,348$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed No | 48c | 1,345$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 45c | 1,330$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…5ffdbacked No | 63c | 1,265$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 59c | 1,250$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.68 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9002…469bbacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8e…2bb0backed No | 8c | 1,187$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…9289backed No | 1c | 1,150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.