TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x66b1…da6e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
85
Categories scored
3
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT6045%27 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+144%+$795.75
Spain vs. Argentina: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$603Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+100%+$603.03
Spain leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$510
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,047Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$414.78
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$746Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$746.2
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$56.33
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
England leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+76.3%+$496.19
France vs. England: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$349.99
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.7
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$427Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$272.99
France leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$651Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$650.83
France vs. England: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,017Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,016.5
Will France vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$467Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$467.42
Spread: England (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$399
France vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Halfbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$96.96
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+578%+$404.58
England vs. Argentina: England 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$451Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$451
England vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$234
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$548Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$547.7
England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$498.96
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$540
France vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.2
France vs. Spain: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$552Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$552
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,163Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,162.7
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,190
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.43
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+285.2%+$740.39
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$286.08
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$9,123Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$3,138.72
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,417Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,416.61
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+25%+$300
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$14,610Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$4,441.24
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,114Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+64.9%+$1,371.75
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.8
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$3,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+55.8%+$2,120.26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25,854Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$25,853.79
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+139.7%+$4,189.77
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,665Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+91.2%+$2,429.19
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+66.8%+$179.78
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,450
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+78.2%+$781.86
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$8,346Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$2,534.53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$19,743Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.6%+$6,637.9
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+100.3%+$67.15
All 21 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.