Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc239b0621a1a7d79228032559bbc5f2a43cffeac5f9bdca63cb872347142c16b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $326,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfae…9dedbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 73c | 10,476$7,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,653.69 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 26c | 10,000$2,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,402.65 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69e6…a2afbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No | 64c | 9,412$6,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,055.13 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…da6ebacked No | 18c | 8,000$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.61 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 58c | 7,307$4,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,063.94 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 6,624$2,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,681.7 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 5c | 5,233$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.13 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 65c | 5,046$3,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.85 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 21c | 3,908$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,087.52 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 65c | 3,710$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.22 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 39c | 3,178$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,923.07 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3241…2cc5backed Yes | 24c | 3,176$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,419.69 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 33c | 3,000$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.49 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.99 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 45c | 2,736$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.72 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 69c | 2,716$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.21 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 57c | 2,685$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.2 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,624$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,969.59 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 16c | 2,613$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.44 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…6c68backed No | 6c | 2,380$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.98 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 68c | 2,249$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 27c | 2,204$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.51 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…693ebacked No | 72c | 2,167$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.0wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 33c | 2,000$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.29 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…c387backed Yes | 77c | 1,844$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 24c | 1,834$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.85 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 1,696$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.44 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed Yes | 39c | 1,535$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.46 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 12c | 1,500$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 41c | 1,482$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.7 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,450$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 77c | 1,314$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.29 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 48c | 1,269$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.7 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 17c | 1,200$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.73 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,172$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.8 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked No | 31c | 1,170$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.67 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 61c | 1,093$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.63 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 1,056$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.8 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed No | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 71c | 937.22$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.22 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 885.3$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.04 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 42c | 869$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.5 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 30c | 832.99$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 43c | 827.34$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.74 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…c02ebacked No | 3c | 810.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 69c | 794.64$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.38 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 69c | 768.38$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 34c | 750$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 31c | 747.78$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.22 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 46c | 720.39$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.89 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 659.9$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.81 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 71c | 652.04$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.27 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 46c | 637.97$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.49 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 37c | 619.98$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.99 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 68c | 594.9$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.25 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…c5f0backed Yes | 24c | 584.32$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.77 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e8…7b51backed No | 9c | 570.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 52c | 570.02$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.24 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 16c | 548.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 47c | 544.32$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.12 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 78c | 517.03$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.22 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37e…243bbacked Yes | 77c | 511.59$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked No | 68c | 482.18$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 61c | 461.35$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.35 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes | 29c | 410$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.3 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +6.2wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd49…ca83backed No | 80c | 409$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed No | 60c | 395.64$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 38c | 390$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…17bbbacked No | 15c | 367.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…47c5backed No | 28c | 348.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes | 35c | 304$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.6 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…cabcbacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +194%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…d532backed No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…906ebacked Yes | 64c | 290.64$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.23 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed No | 43c | 290.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 79c | 263.19$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 58c | 261.91$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.7 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 261.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 53c | 258.94$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.18 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed No | 46c | 255$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 53c | 246.27$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 67c | 242.95$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…202bbacked Yes | 26c | 240$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28b8…5e00backed No | 9c | 236.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 31c | 227.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.99 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed Yes | 42c | 210.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.71 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 40c | 210.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.65 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 41c | 205.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed No | 65c | 201.59$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…a9f6backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0551…3d39backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?this page
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.