TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$326,456
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$331,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,456 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfae…9dedbacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15205%1 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+108.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No73c10,476$7,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,653.6937740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes26c10,000$2,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,402.6528734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x69e6…a2afbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No64c9,412$6,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,055.135650%28 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…da6ebacked No18c8,000$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.612161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes58c7,307$4,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,063.9416831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c6,624$2,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,681.764339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked No5c5,233$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.1325518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes65c5,046$3,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.8519739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes21c3,908$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,087.527032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes65c3,710$2,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.2220143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes39c3,178$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.0713532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3241…2cc5backed Yes24c3,176$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.692373.9%17 W · 6 L+5.3wins+0.23per pick51cpaid+92.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes33c3,000$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,004.4917737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes30c3,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.9922227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes45c2,736$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.7210745.8%49 W · 58 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed Yes69c2,716$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.216755.2%37 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes57c2,685$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.212054.2%65 W · 55 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6418…730cbacked Yes25c2,624$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.595145.1%23 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+75.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked No16c2,613$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.448719.5%17 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4214…6c68backed No6c2,380$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.986832.4%22 W · 46 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+60.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76db…6987backed Yes68c2,249$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes27c2,204$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.5114228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb49…693ebacked No72c2,167$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,558.531428.6%4 W · 10 L-5.0wins-0.36per pick64cpaid-49.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No33c2,000$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.2926429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc037…c387backed Yes77c1,844$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes24c1,834$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.8516526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes23c1,696$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.4456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9fe…f135backed Yes39c1,535$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.462860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed No12c1,500$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17411323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No41c1,482$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.713419.4%26 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c1,450$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.381,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No77c1,314$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.2920749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked Yes48c1,269$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.77948.1%38 W · 41 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked No17c1,200$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7310141.6%42 W · 59 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes51c1,172$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.817359.5%103 W · 70 L+12.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaadc…d8efbacked No31c1,170$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.676636.4%24 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes61c1,093$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.6321525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes33c1,056$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.867841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed No61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6101442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes71c937.22$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.2214227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No15c885.3$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0421726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes42c869$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.512638.1%48 W · 78 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes30c832.99$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.51553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+67%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No43c827.34$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.7412944.2%57 W · 72 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdae…c02ebacked No3c810.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2132…7657backed Yes69c794.64$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.384645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed No69c768.38$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53218246.2%84 W · 98 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No34c750$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25635355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked No31c747.78$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.2217111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes46c720.39$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.8922927.1%62 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No31c659.9$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.8158927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb980…73b0backed Yes71c652.04$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.275952.5%31 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked No46c637.97$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.495523.6%13 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0652…9134backed No37c619.98$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.994413.6%6 W · 38 L-9.9wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-66.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes68c594.9$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.2515347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x207b…c5f0backed Yes24c584.32$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.773234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9e8…7b51backed No9c570.1$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.95119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes52c570.02$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.2424839.5%98 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No16c548.81$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6642311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x369c…eab1backed No47c544.32$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.126129.5%18 W · 43 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-34%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No78c517.03$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.2212432.3%40 W · 84 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf37e…243bbacked Yes77c511.59$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.564100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1602626.9%7 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-50.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked No68c482.18$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3295954.2%32 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes61c461.35$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.3524149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes29c410$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.32272.7%16 W · 6 L+6.2wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+50.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xdd49…ca83backed No80c409$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes27c400$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29242329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No76c400$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3047350.7%37 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed No60c395.64$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23714854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No38c390$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.217129.2%50 W · 121 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc682…17bbbacked No15c367.44$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.942634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd74…47c5backed No28c348.94$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.43922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes35c304$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.62955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2512343.9%54 W · 69 L+15.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026237.1%23 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No77c300$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23111944.5%53 W · 66 L-17.8wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-32.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x3344…cabcbacked Yes33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2013036.7%11 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+194%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x831a…d532backed No14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x836f…906ebacked Yes64c290.64$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.231392.3%12 W · 1 L+4.5wins+0.34per pick58cpaid+62.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc8e3…6fb0backed No43c290.27$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.632045%9 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Yes79c263.19$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.278636%31 W · 55 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e29…a4a0backed No58c261.91$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.75632.1%18 W · 38 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-48.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No38c261.57$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.434234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes53c258.94$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1818135.9%65 W · 116 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2762…2cf6backed No46c255$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.456159%36 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+34.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes53c246.27$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2822627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes67c242.95$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.387745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb368…202bbacked Yes26c240$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1784100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+154.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x28b8…5e00backed No9c236.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.423036.7%11 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+36.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes31c227.35$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.9936035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x652b…f5c2backed Yes42c210.98$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.713050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+34.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes40c210.32$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6511436%41 W · 73 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No41c205.14$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2711037.3%41 W · 69 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2974…9c23backed No65c201.59$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1323562.9%22 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd83c…34f6backed Yes26c200$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1483852.6%20 W · 18 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9366…a9f6backed No36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0551…3d39backed No34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.