Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eef613e7ebc53924d2f1ce318465ba30c0a6e26b17b7aaa7cc513743efa0999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,572$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515e…8309backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…9dedbacked Yes | 1c | 3,956$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 3,234$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 1c | 2,950$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,853$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.4 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,969$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 9c | 1,577$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 6c | 1,312$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,064$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.45 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 19c | 986.01$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.25 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed Yes | 12c | 846.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 16c | 733.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.23 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 566.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 24c | 532$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…47bcbacked Yes | 21c | 508.55$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…a7a7backed Yes | 25c | 476.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 36cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes | 17c | 457.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed Yes | 25c | 441.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…ca54backed Yes | 26c | 421.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…1fb6backed Yes | 29c | 350.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 10c | 289.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 5c | 288$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 6c | 267.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 15c | 257.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 249.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 249.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 159 | 43.4%69 W · 90 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 15c | 199.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f81…707ebacked Yes | 20c | 150.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 15c | 147.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 26c | 139.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 25c | 137.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 79c | 132.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 79c | 115.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 113.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…1968backed Yes | 14c | 101.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 30c | 100.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x773d…bb91backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1d…45dcbacked No | 76c | 97.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 15c | 80.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…131ebacked No | 76c | 80.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 76c | 75.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7326…d3aebacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…622fbacked Yes | 30c | 57.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…3455backed No | 78c | 51.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec8…6695backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +170.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…4258backed Yes | 26c | 48.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed No | 52c | 33.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +8.7wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…895dbacked No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…9d04backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?this page
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.