Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x994e0b04d322301b7157a5e42d45eb5f6a6401017811a737a95c75687aa1357a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $387,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $364,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $387,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 8c | 20,000$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.5 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4568…d9f6backed Yes | 11c | 19,750$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076.33 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 11c | 12,335$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.19 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 10c | 11,827$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.54 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2adb…da11backed Yes | 40c | 7,311$2,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,949 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 71c | 7,006$4,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.32 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 11c | 6,491$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.23 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 14c | 5,363$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.26 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 18c | 5,197$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…a1edbacked Yes | 41c | 4,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 15c | 4,719$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.34 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 22c | 4,390$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.39 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 24c | 4,367$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.62 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 22c | 4,358$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 15c | 4,233$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.92 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 79c | 4,214$3,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.83 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 4,049$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.41 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 16c | 3,581$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.44 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 8c | 3,539$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.17 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 28c | 3,360$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.65 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 2,968$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.29 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 68c | 2,919$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.97 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 27c | 2,706$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 77c | 2,600$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.4 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…5e6abacked Yes | 16c | 2,564$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.2 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 31c | 2,523$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.16 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e7…9561backed Yes | 28c | 2,485$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 27c | 2,450$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.87 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,351$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.3 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed11…10bebacked Yes | 9c | 2,208$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bb…3849backed Yes | 46c | 2,200$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…c41cbacked No | 70c | 2,155$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 66c | 2,144$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.65 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes | 23c | 2,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 74c | 2,053$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.75 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 77c | 1,940$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.81 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 22c | 1,863$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.79 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 26c | 1,813$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.12 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 19c | 1,760$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.94 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 14c | 1,750$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.27 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 80c | 1,731$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.87 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,678$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…7eacbacked Yes | 7c | 1,648$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.9 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…ef2ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,632$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.66 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…4424backed Yes | 20c | 1,563$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.16 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.16 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 74c | 1,490$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.75 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725a…5cafbacked Yes | 38c | 1,400$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,377$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 77c | 1,365$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.21 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 73c | 1,166$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.49 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 22c | 1,156$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x469b…7e0ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,142$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…71f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 25c | 1,102$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.89 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…cabcbacked Yes | 27c | 1,084$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.26 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +194%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…1fb6backed Yes | 28c | 1,077$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…af68backed Yes | 19c | 1,076$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,048$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.61 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,036$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,027$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…724cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes | 29c | 999.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c9…36fcbacked Yes | 24c | 999.99$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…1a63backed Yes | 20c | 991.37$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.83 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 22c | 955.68$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…fbd7backed No | 76c | 918.66$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 71c | 904.48$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.97 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 22c | 899.4$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.4 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 74c | 889.32$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 11c | 864.85$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b3…7552backed Yes | 26c | 837.44$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 12cpaid | +484.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1db…838dbacked Yes | 13c | 811.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…db31backed No | 74c | 799.99$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 27c | 793.61$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed No | 76c | 775.56$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.53 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…0c7fbacked No | 67c | 759.97$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.09 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed Yes | 49c | 757.75$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0e…1696backed No | 57c | 742.64$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…e345backed Yes | 48c | 736.81$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e1…fcc4backed Yes | 14c | 733.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…66b7backed No | 79c | 730.04$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.38 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 69c | 723.69$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.62 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 18c | 700$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.07 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 12c | 674.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…866ebacked Yes | 24c | 669.65$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 19c | 662.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49d…2862backed Yes | 16c | 619.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes | 30c | 610.39$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.62 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 8c | 609.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…909dbacked Yes | 17c | 594.27$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 68c | 587.9$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.9 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…9bc4backed Yes | 4c | 556.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 25c | 536.46$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683d…53efbacked Yes | 24c | 532$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 72c | 522.69$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.77 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 21c | 516.8$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.98 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 70c | 499.99$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…d8e6backed Yes | 44c | 497.77$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?this page
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.