TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$387,612
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$364,680

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $387,612 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd519…932cbacked Yes8c20,000$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.51128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4568…d9f6backed Yes11c19,750$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.33185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes11c12,335$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.1921525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes10c11,827$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.5411038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2adb…da11backed Yes40c7,311$2,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No71c7,006$4,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.3251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes11c6,491$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.238719.5%17 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Yes14c5,363$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.267030%21 W · 49 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+250.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes18c5,197$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93213518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff91…a1edbacked Yes41c4,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+51%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes15c4,719$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.3412054.2%65 W · 55 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes22c4,390$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.3914228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes24c4,367$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.6216831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c92…9627backed Yes22c4,358$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9403225%8 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01d1…12a4backed Yes15c4,233$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.925038%19 W · 31 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+99.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No79c4,214$3,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.835532.7%18 W · 37 L-16.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-53.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c4,049$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.4189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes16c3,581$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.4424149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes8c3,539$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.178514.1%12 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes28c3,360$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.6522529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c2,968$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.291,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No68c2,919$1,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.9729653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes27c2,706$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73517929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No77c2,600$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.48359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0182…5e6abacked Yes16c2,564$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.23225%8 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes31c2,523$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.1612341.5%51 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95e7…9561backed Yes28c2,485$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes27c2,450$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.8711527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes21c2,351$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.34325.6%11 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+197.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed11…10bebacked Yes9c2,208$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5bb…3849backed Yes46c2,200$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.991936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+82.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28b7…c41cbacked No70c2,155$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.182259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No66c2,144$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.6519648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes23c2,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004914.3%7 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No74c2,053$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.7510737.4%40 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No77c1,940$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.817145.1%32 W · 39 L-8.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-29.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes22c1,863$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.796347.6%30 W · 33 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes26c1,813$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.1225339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes19c1,760$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.9413829%40 W · 98 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+7.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes14c1,750$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.276538.5%25 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No80c1,731$1,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.879647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6c5…6f9cbacked Yes5c1,678$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805825.9%15 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick16cpaid+121.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab15…7eacbacked Yes7c1,648$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.96820.6%14 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91a5…ef2ebacked Yes23c1,632$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.664920.4%10 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabe9…4424backed Yes20c1,563$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.162236.4%8 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed No79c1,500$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.1613138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No74c1,490$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.7518531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x725a…5cafbacked Yes38c1,400$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.61233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+128.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes8c1,377$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.920823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No77c1,365$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.2124839.5%98 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No73c1,166$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.4921333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes22c1,156$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25542329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x469b…7e0ebacked Yes44c1,142$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc1…71f6backed Yes2c1,109$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes25c1,102$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.8913441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3344…cabcbacked Yes27c1,084$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.263036.7%11 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+194%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb100…1fb6backed Yes28c1,077$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004515.6%7 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27db…af68backed Yes19c1,076$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007428.4%21 W · 53 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes25c1,048$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.6115347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes7c1,036$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.81588.6%5 W · 53 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-73.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes9c1,027$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7117111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd34…724cbacked Yes21c1,000$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes29c999.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2903917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82c9…36fcbacked Yes24c999.99$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2394332.6%14 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77fa…1a63backed Yes20c991.37$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.837529.3%22 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes22c955.68$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8131344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d0c…fbd7backed No76c918.66$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.861060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+65.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e3…9188backed No71c904.48$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.9711633.6%39 W · 77 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes22c899.4$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.414325.9%37 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No74c889.32$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.218135.9%65 W · 116 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes11c864.85$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13b3…7552backed Yes26c837.44$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.361735.3%6 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick12cpaid+484.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc1db…838dbacked Yes13c811.13$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.453411.8%4 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b8…db31backed No74c799.99$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.4650%3 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes27c793.61$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2142619.2%5 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick7cpaid+212.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e3d…8554backed No76c775.56$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.532958.6%17 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+20.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0d96…0c7fbacked No67c759.97$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.094768.1%32 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+20%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6af…05c6backed Yes49c757.75$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3684742.6%20 W · 27 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+49%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f0e…1696backed No57c742.64$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.641145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5f8…e345backed Yes48c736.81$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e1…fcc4backed Yes14c733.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe958…66b7backed No79c730.04$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.382334.8%8 W · 15 L-5.4wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-24.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No69c723.69$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.6211037.3%41 W · 69 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes18c700$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.079028.9%26 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes12c674.72$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.121553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+67%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64a0…866ebacked Yes24c669.65$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1605945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes19c662.1$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.744143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe49d…2862backed Yes16c619.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes30c610.39$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6212328.5%35 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes8c609.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.764748.9%23 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+33.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No66c600$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2047635.5%27 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93b4…909dbacked Yes17c594.27$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.93214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid+116.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x355c…e6d4backed No68c587.9$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.98741.4%36 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b3…9bc4backed Yes4c556.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes25c536.46$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9714520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x683d…53efbacked Yes24c532$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.52520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+43.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed No72c522.69$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.776755.2%37 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked Yes21c516.8$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9814944.3%66 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No70c499.99$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1494725.5%12 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-59.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xab73…d8e6backed Yes44c497.77$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.