Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x608b260059adb2315f3a649419ab8f684f0d741db319aae9c08f93fe2a268f31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $814,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $744,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $814,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 442 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 1c | 47,754$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.82 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 74c | 44,875$33,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,330.25 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 37,030$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.72 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 64c | 25,126$16,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,017.59 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf748…c387backed Yes | 5c | 20,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 1c | 17,000$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645d…aa23backed Yes | 2c | 11,950$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 13c | 10,091$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 17c | 9,832$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,165.25 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 67c | 9,061$6,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,958.9 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 31c | 8,921$2,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,767.83 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…4e75backed Yes | 57c | 8,705$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa585…8875backed Yes | 26c | 8,560$2,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,223.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,001$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed No | 47c | 7,778$3,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,109.8 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,456$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 50c | 7,413$3,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,705.04 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 36c | 5,763$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.45 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,495$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.72 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…e559backed Yes | 21c | 5,472$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.42 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 6c | 5,400$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.6 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…22a0backed Yes | 38c | 5,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +160.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 37c | 5,213$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.9 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 55c | 4,928$2,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.37 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 31c | 4,888$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525.52 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 4c | 4,784$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.05 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…e40bbacked Yes | 26c | 4,616$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 72c | 4,454$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…93e6backed Yes | 1c | 4,161$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 4,119$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 12c | 4,048$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.33 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 26c | 3,978$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.78 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked No | 75c | 3,898$2,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.38 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…70c3backed Yes | 5c | 3,873$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.07 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 26c | 3,782$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Yes | 79c | 3,767$2,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 52c | 3,557$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.02 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 75c | 3,443$2,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.54 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…6ca8backed Yes | 15c | 3,199$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.66 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 20c | 3,137$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.99 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…4f6fbacked Yes | 30c | 3,119$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 31c | 3,005$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.76 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…f637backed Yes | 26c | 2,987$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ae…5b63backed Yes | 12c | 2,760$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.72 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.25per pick | 14cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 77c | 2,719$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.73 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 67c | 2,710$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.19 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 71c | 2,626$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.92 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…f928backed Yes | 7c | 2,528$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 21c | 2,509$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.07 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 50c | 2,460$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.6 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 67c | 2,417$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.4 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb629…14dbbacked Yes | 27c | 2,237$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 76c | 2,222$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.72 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 64c | 2,184$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.72 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e96…9853backed Yes | 4c | 2,132$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 46c | 2,079$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.76 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e7…9561backed Yes | 12c | 2,026$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…f151backed Yes | 1c | 2,021$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…3bdcbacked Yes | 26c | 1,989$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +311.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 19c | 1,947$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.82 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…3da4backed Yes | 31c | 1,872$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…0e8dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,846$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 54c | 1,843$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.09 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed No | 61c | 1,800$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 67c | 1,773$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.17 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,765$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.04 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 55c | 1,758$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.36 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…882cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,744$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 35c | 1,681$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.55 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…fccbbacked Yes | 35c | 1,565$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.7 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,552$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.09 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 20c | 1,541$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 18c | 1,500$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.82 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 50c | 1,496$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.93 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 75c | 1,495$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.85 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed Yes | 15c | 1,483$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 65c | 1,469$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.84 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…e1e8backed Yes | 5c | 1,431$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 1,411$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…fe18backed No | 69c | 1,400$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.2 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 52c | 1,391$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.23 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,379$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0551…3d39backed No | 63c | 1,349$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.34 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…c562backed Yes | 46c | 1,330$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.03 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 1,324$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.53 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,295$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…1217backed Yes | 23c | 1,291$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…9158backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 34c | 1,248$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.45 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 14c | 1,245$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.58 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…22e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,211$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 40c | 1,200$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,199$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 66c | 1,169$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.86 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,162$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 1,111$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 1,080$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.55 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 39c | 1,062$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.83 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef2…c543backed Yes | 24c | 1,055$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?this page
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.