Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0619980a29b1022ba9cbdcb7da731be0be8799ecf9ff2eb5c1ee9137235b0770
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,310,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,483,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,310,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 620 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d12…7d66backed No | 0c | 760,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +1,881.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…563bbacked No | 0c | 550,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4489…7666backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 0c | 79,825$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…5cadbacked No | 0c | 64,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 28c | 32,684$9,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,541.81 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 12c | 29,895$3,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,614.52 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 59c | 23,966$14,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,080.92 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 23,700$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.65 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 42c | 19,601$8,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,406.09 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 54c | 18,326$9,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,428.86 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 22c | 18,000$4,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,023.71 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…b5d4backed No | 0c | 16,610$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…9dedbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…7311backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…6c68backed No | 4c | 14,206$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.59 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186e…c43bbacked No | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 10c | 13,226$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,887.56 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55dc…78f3backed No | 0c | 13,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed No | 0c | 12,335$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…da6ebacked Yes | 74c | 12,261$9,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,138.72 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 79c | 12,035$9,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,576.1 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 12,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…8050backed No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 14c | 11,817$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,154.64 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 40c | 11,082$4,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,636.55 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…d959backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…93e6backed No | 0c | 10,650$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed No | 76c | 10,589$8,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,011.87 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked No | 43c | 10,556$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 21c | 10,545$2,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,333.73 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 70c | 10,368$7,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,285.67 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…14c4backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1637…69fcbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…157fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,300 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b86…3a4bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 9,590$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,134.78 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 24c | 9,438$2,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,303.56 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed No | 19c | 9,402$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.96 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes | 69c | 9,274$6,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 43c | 9,251$3,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,983.09 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 39c | 7,746$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,706.33 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 71c | 7,530$5,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.17 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 17c | 7,119$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,913.06 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 30c | 7,010$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,890.93 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 11c | 6,539$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,804.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.66per pick | 9cpaid | +882.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…10c2backed Yes | 39c | 6,500$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,982.48 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 19c | 6,217$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,022.39 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 35c | 6,121$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,976.78 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Yes | 79c | 6,000$4,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 68c | 6,000$4,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,084.98 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 47c | 5,872$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,742.68 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 45c | 5,819$2,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,172.88 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 40c | 5,627$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,386.89 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 9c | 5,314$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,813.6 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 59c | 5,286$3,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,129.21 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 67c | 5,201$3,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.17 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…0d8bbacked Yes | 10c | 5,088$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,590.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 4c | 5,019$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.28 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,649.99 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 60c | 4,612$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.94 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 8c | 4,521$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.66 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 51c | 4,500$2,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,281 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed No | 0c | 4,419$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 52c | 4,401$2,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.05 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…7c9ebacked No | 6c | 4,000$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…af38backed Yes | 9c | 3,962$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,610.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 19cpaid | +399.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 24c | 3,942$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,988.54 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 18c | 3,706$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.55 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 9c | 3,632$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,305.42 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +8.7wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked No | 53c | 3,619$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 77c | 3,398$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620.06 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed No | 37c | 3,370$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 50c | 3,366$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.44 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 58c | 3,366$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,952.6 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa757…2e05backed No | 10c | 3,348$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 69c | 3,298$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.87 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 42c | 3,295$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.85 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 54c | 3,257$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,752.99 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 11c | 3,144$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.81 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 57c | 3,137$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.59 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 63c | 3,034$1,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.19 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 77c | 3,006$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.31 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…2c91backed Yes | 55c | 3,000$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…c562backed No | 10c | 3,000$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdef2…c543backed No | 8c | 2,997$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed No | 19c | 2,989$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.43 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 75c | 2,958$2,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.68 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 27c | 2,876$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.5 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 43c | 2,846$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.5 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ee…f8fabacked Yes | 21c | 2,845$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 63c | 2,821$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.85 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 80c | 2,758$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.1 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 35c | 2,647$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.29 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 74c | 2,638$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.58 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 14c | 2,590$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.81 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 18c | 2,500$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?this page
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.