Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5819d26bf096633c6b775be65e1fe90e62737d6d3236f63622c9173072bc9e24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $297,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af8…a9f5backed Yes | 1c | 9,671$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 4c | 7,311$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.98 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 22c | 6,928$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 3c | 6,897$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 21c | 6,860$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.92 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 9c | 5,556$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.88 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 0c | 4,711$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…1a63backed Yes | 18c | 4,540$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.7 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 74c | 4,022$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.54 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 28c | 3,670$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 20c | 3,555$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…a1edbacked Yes | 29c | 3,260$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 71c | 3,223$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.8 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,998$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.14 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 76c | 2,905$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.74 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 2,842$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.32 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,742$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 34c | 2,709$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.58 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adb…da11backed Yes | 42c | 2,672$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 11c | 2,508$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.93 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…5e6abacked Yes | 26c | 2,496$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.05 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…da6ebacked Yes | 62c | 2,325$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,308$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.87 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 46c | 2,182$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.57 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 10c | 2,091$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.36 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3669…0372backed Yes | 7c | 2,030$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.45 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…af68backed Yes | 31c | 2,000$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.15 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 66c | 1,968$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 22c | 1,945$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.18 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…d959backed Yes | 36c | 1,930$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…20fbbacked No | 79c | 1,772$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 3c | 1,634$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,500$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,496$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.23 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x20ee…f8fabacked Yes | 25c | 1,338$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 62c | 1,322$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.95 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…cabcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,233$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +194%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,169$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.35 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb629…14dbbacked Yes | 46c | 1,143$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.81 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,129$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 38c | 1,089$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.28 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 27c | 1,035$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.61 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1597…d74fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f3…85debacked Yes | 15c | 1,004$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.58 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.38 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked Yes | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed Yes | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 42c | 952$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.16 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…19a9backed Yes | 4c | 941.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +590.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 16c | 925.43$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.68 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 18c | 922.22$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.78 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 912.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 46c | 883.79$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.78 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed No | 76c | 850.92$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 3c | 850$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 10c | 800$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…fbd7backed Yes | 31c | 788.52$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 56c | 777$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.14 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 26c | 756.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 739.76$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c9…36fcbacked Yes | 26c | 739$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.14 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 3c | 735.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 64c | 726.36$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.7 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed Yes | 28c | 719.56$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.87 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +189.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 63c | 711.02$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.76 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 68c | 708.04$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.35 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…3bdcbacked Yes | 29c | 685.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +311.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…6e71backed Yes | 43c | 670.66$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed Yes | 17c | 632.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 70c | 603$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.31 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 72c | 599.99$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…10d4backed No | 78c | 583$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 60c | 582.05$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.76 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 48c | 576.13$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.32 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed11…10bebacked Yes | 17c | 572.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes | 18c | 555.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 28c | 551.52$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 20c | 537.39$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 47c | 531.63$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.65 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 70c | 515.11$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 72c | 512.04$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.04 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2252…d4f5backed Yes | 59c | 504.46$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +241.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…4424backed Yes | 40c | 503.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 28c | 499.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 21c | 484.79$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…0c7fbacked Yes | 57c | 459.99$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f81…707ebacked Yes | 46c | 450.27$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 31c | 439$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.19 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 53c | 412.84$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.03 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…7d21backed Yes | 8c | 406.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 10c | 403$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 11c | 400$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 26c | 400$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?this page
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.