TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,221,756
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,161,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,221,756 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 542 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe1e1…d250backed Yes38c87,049$33,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,431.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes2c45,829$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.0343212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No74c41,487$30,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,866.67462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed No71c29,131$20,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,456.26165.6%40 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Yes74c23,562$17,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,411.441741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes23c22,594$5,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,266.318125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed No48c19,023$9,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,978.1211038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0371…70c3backed Yes0c18,169$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.663429.4%10 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01d1…12a4backed Yes26c17,420$4,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,448.555038%19 W · 31 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+99.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4e3d…8554backed No64c17,107$10,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,171.62958.6%17 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+20.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes2c16,290$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.348630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed No34c13,345$4,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,792.5822529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x375c…3532backed Yes7c12,715$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-58.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No63c12,673$7,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,743.1537740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ec…2493backed No37c11,691$4,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,307.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed No68c11,360$7,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,681.56060%36 W · 24 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+125.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4927…22a0backed Yes55c10,996$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0001266.7%8 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+160.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked No38c10,312$3,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,389.543020%6 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff91…a1edbacked Yes25c10,131$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+51%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c66…44f3backed No23c9,215$2,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,100.363531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No58c8,388$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,488.2729653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No65c7,773$5,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,702.3220143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cc…882cbacked Yes20c7,683$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.721127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+129.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No53c7,554$3,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,571.2716553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes5c7,464$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.2522627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No68c6,804$4,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.1934143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes30c6,606$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.9616831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4780…348ebacked Yes22c6,258$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No34c6,051$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,985.0813738%52 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3344…cabcbacked Yes49c6,050$2,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,975.993036.7%11 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+194%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed No54c5,987$3,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,781.19434%32 W · 62 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe168…e559backed Yes27c5,772$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.472661.5%16 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+42.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Yes4c5,220$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007030%21 W · 49 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+250.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed No59c5,200$3,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,116.165836.2%21 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes30c5,159$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.0451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No72c4,850$3,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.9819739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c92…9627backed Yes18c4,839$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8703225%8 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No61c4,832$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.3428750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6418…730cbacked Yes27c4,444$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.315145.1%23 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+75.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c0c…24d7backed Yes18c4,386$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7802133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes10c4,278$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.9617018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8e5…b808backed Yes48c4,259$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.58825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No72c4,151$3,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.4342329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed No74c4,065$3,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.0918246.2%84 W · 98 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes20c4,031$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.8414325.9%37 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd52b…5c72backed No53c3,948$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.465848.3%28 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No54c3,938$2,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.7319648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes35c3,883$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.6835355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x90bf…3348backed No19c3,699$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,994.296633.3%22 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c3,629$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.181,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes16c3,600$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.220617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb6…11c5backed Yes16c3,473$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No62c3,463$2,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.9538247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6aea…b485backed Yes11c3,449$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.822733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed Yes42c3,441$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.684337.2%16 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes2c3,359$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4121525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc1f…222bbacked Yes44c3,068$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3462744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes14c3,017$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4157431.1%23 W · 51 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-6.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked No72c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8404665.2%30 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes15c2,998$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.1435631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No67c2,920$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.620438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes23c2,837$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.3213532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No58c2,831$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.4145843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes45c2,764$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.6317530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ab…3af9backed No77c2,670$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.44977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No57c2,644$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.6319531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes40c2,631$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.8511323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No64c2,570$1,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.9430635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…9ffdbacked No80c2,546$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.897248.6%35 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdef2…c543backed Yes16c2,530$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3961225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No71c2,246$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.595251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f6…417bbacked Yes9c2,176$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe059…932cbacked Yes24c2,050$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28b7…c41cbacked No29c2,041$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.242259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No64c2,019$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.695259.6%31 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No57c2,007$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.4416041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No40c2,000$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.9428734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked No58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8405942.4%25 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes2c1,999$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9813617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2470…22e5backed Yes7c1,873$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.11933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x773d…bb91backed Yes37c1,872$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-70.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes18c1,870$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.9721034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes48c1,849$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.844143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes26c1,754$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.747341.1%30 W · 43 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No75c1,745$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.799749.5%48 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d0d…9383backed Yes18c1,683$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes11c1,679$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.7342311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes37c1,655$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61011527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77fa…1a63backed Yes19c1,602$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.547529.3%22 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b62…5203backed No46c1,587$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.75731.6%18 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes64c1,518$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.7631344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No17c1,500$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25115629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes4c1,491$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9913440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes57c1,467$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.3648923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb698…976abacked Yes46c1,419$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6475712.3%7 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5f8…e345backed Yes40c1,416$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes5c1,394$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.714769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd34…724cbacked Yes37c1,383$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9d8…b4fbbacked Yes17c1,327$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed No27c1,301$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9486347.6%30 W · 33 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.