Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfedc055699e34eac5f8cd6a1fb1d19e40d87c8e6920b59e741edcb41f8bbdf7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,221,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,161,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,221,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 542 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1e1…d250backed Yes | 38c | 87,049$33,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,431.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 45,829$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.03 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 74c | 41,487$30,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,866.6 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 71c | 29,131$20,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,456.2 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Yes | 74c | 23,562$17,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,411.44 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 23c | 22,594$5,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,266.31 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 48c | 19,023$9,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,978.12 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…70c3backed Yes | 0c | 18,169$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 26c | 17,420$4,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,448.55 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed No | 64c | 17,107$10,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,171.6 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 2c | 16,290$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.3 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 34c | 13,345$4,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,792.58 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375c…3532backed Yes | 7c | 12,715$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 63c | 12,673$7,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,743.15 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ec…2493backed No | 37c | 11,691$4,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,307.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 68c | 11,360$7,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,681.5 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…22a0backed Yes | 55c | 10,996$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +160.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked No | 38c | 10,312$3,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,389.54 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…a1edbacked Yes | 25c | 10,131$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed No | 23c | 9,215$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,100.36 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 58c | 8,388$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,488.27 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 65c | 7,773$5,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,702.32 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…882cbacked Yes | 20c | 7,683$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 53c | 7,554$3,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,571.27 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 5c | 7,464$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.25 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 68c | 6,804$4,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,189.19 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 30c | 6,606$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.96 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4780…348ebacked Yes | 22c | 6,258$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 34c | 6,051$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,985.08 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…cabcbacked Yes | 49c | 6,050$2,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975.99 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +194%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 54c | 5,987$3,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,781.1 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…e559backed Yes | 27c | 5,772$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.47 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 4c | 5,220$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed No | 59c | 5,200$3,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,116.16 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 30c | 5,159$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.04 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 4,850$3,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.98 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 18c | 4,839$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 61c | 4,832$2,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.34 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 27c | 4,444$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.31 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…24d7backed Yes | 18c | 4,386$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 10c | 4,278$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.96 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e5…b808backed Yes | 48c | 4,259$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 72c | 4,151$3,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.43 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 74c | 4,065$3,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.09 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 20c | 4,031$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.84 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 53c | 3,948$2,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.46 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 54c | 3,938$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.73 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 35c | 3,883$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.68 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed No | 19c | 3,699$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,994.29 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 3,629$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.18 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 16c | 3,600$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.2 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…11c5backed Yes | 16c | 3,473$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 62c | 3,463$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.95 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6aea…b485backed Yes | 11c | 3,449$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.82 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 42c | 3,441$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.68 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 2c | 3,359$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1f…222bbacked Yes | 44c | 3,068$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 14c | 3,017$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 72c | 3,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 15c | 2,998$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.14 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 67c | 2,920$1,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.6 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 23c | 2,837$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.32 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 58c | 2,831$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.41 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 45c | 2,764$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.63 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ab…3af9backed No | 77c | 2,670$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 57c | 2,644$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.63 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 40c | 2,631$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.85 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 64c | 2,570$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.94 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked No | 80c | 2,546$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.89 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef2…c543backed Yes | 16c | 2,530$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 71c | 2,246$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.59 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…417bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe059…932cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,050$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…c41cbacked No | 29c | 2,041$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.24 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 64c | 2,019$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.69 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 57c | 2,007$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.44 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 40c | 2,000$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.94 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 2c | 1,999$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…22e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,873$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x773d…bb91backed Yes | 37c | 1,872$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 18c | 1,870$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.97 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 48c | 1,849$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.84 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,754$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.74 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 75c | 1,745$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.79 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0d…9383backed Yes | 18c | 1,683$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,679$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.73 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 37c | 1,655$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…1a63backed Yes | 19c | 1,602$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.54 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed No | 46c | 1,587$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.7 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 64c | 1,518$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.76 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 17c | 1,500$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 4c | 1,491$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 57c | 1,467$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.36 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 46c | 1,419$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…e345backed Yes | 40c | 1,416$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,394$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…724cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,383$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d8…b4fbbacked Yes | 17c | 1,327$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed No | 27c | 1,301$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?this page
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?No won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes won
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.